International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2026
Association of baloxavir treatment timing with serial interval and household transmission of influenza through a likelihood-based analysis.
СтатьяНазвание и аннотация: Перевод в очереди
Обработка статьи · этапы, ошибки и управление
Загрузка состояния…
Ошибки и ограничения
История · было → стало
Состояние обновляется каждые 5 секунд, пока блок открыт. Процент показывается только там, где известен объём работы. Пауза останавливает продолжение этапа; текущий запрос к источнику может завершиться.
Kim Jihyeon, Ryu Minju, Nishiura Hiroshi, Lee Hyojung
Аннотация
OBJECTIVES: Baloxavir treatment is associated with reduced influenza transmission within households, and the serial interval varies by treatment status. However, it remains unclear how baloxavir-induced changes in the serial interval relate to household transmission. We aimed to quantify the model-based association between baloxavir treatment timing and the serial interval and household transmission risk.
METHODS: We conducted a household survey of influenza cases in Japan between October 2018 and February 2019. We defined a likelihood-based model integrating the serial interval distribution by treatment status and the secondary attack rate (SAR) using individual-level data from index cases. Using this model, we estimated the reduction in the serial interval associated with baloxavir treatment.
RESULTS: Compared with untreated index cases, baloxavir-treated cases were estimated to have a serial interval density reduced by 31.54% following treatment. Treatment within 24 hours was associated with a 0.2534 reduction in the area under the curve, with smaller reductions as treatment was delayed. Earlier treatment was associated with a shorter, more concentrated distribution, whereas treatment 72 hours after onset resembled untreated cases.
CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight that baloxavir treatment is associated with a shorter serial interval and lower estimated secondary household transmission risk. We provide model-based estimates suggesting that earlier administration is associated with a greater reduction in serial interval density and estimated transmission risk, which may inform public health strategies for infection control.
METHODS: We conducted a household survey of influenza cases in Japan between October 2018 and February 2019. We defined a likelihood-based model integrating the serial interval distribution by treatment status and the secondary attack rate (SAR) using individual-level data from index cases. Using this model, we estimated the reduction in the serial interval associated with baloxavir treatment.
RESULTS: Compared with untreated index cases, baloxavir-treated cases were estimated to have a serial interval density reduced by 31.54% following treatment. Treatment within 24 hours was associated with a 0.2534 reduction in the area under the curve, with smaller reductions as treatment was delayed. Earlier treatment was associated with a shorter, more concentrated distribution, whereas treatment 72 hours after onset resembled untreated cases.
CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight that baloxavir treatment is associated with a shorter serial interval and lower estimated secondary household transmission risk. We provide model-based estimates suggesting that earlier administration is associated with a greater reduction in serial interval density and estimated transmission risk, which may inform public health strategies for infection control.