Future Inpatient Cost Burden of Laryngeal Cancer in Romania: Aging, Residence, and Prevention Scenarios in a Nationwide Ecological Study.

Background and Objectives: Laryngeal cancer imposes substantial inpatient costs in middle-income health systems. We described recent trends in laryngeal cancer hospitalizations in Romania, estimated hospital expenditure, and modeled the impact of prevention scenarios to 2035. Methods: We conducted an ecological analysis of 20,056 discharges diagnosed as laryngeal cancer (ICD-10 C32.x) between 2019 and 2023. Each episode was assigned a mean unit cost of 1100 USD, with age- and residence-specific adjustments, and re-priced using EU (3900 USD) and US (30,000 USD) tariffs. We derived annual costs and projected 2035 expenditure under three prevention scenarios. Results: Annual discharges fell from 5408 in 2019 to 3151-3212 in 2020-2021, then rose to 4409 in 2023, while inpatient spending ranged from 3.47 to 5.95 million USD, reaching 4.85 million USD in 2023 (22,200 USD/100,000 population). Re-pricing 2023 activity at EU and US unit costs yielded counterfactual totals of 17.20 and 132.27 million USD. Older adults (≥65 years) generated 47.6% of discharges and 49.1% of spending in 2023, and urban residence increased the odds of age ≥65 by 48% (OR 1.48, 95% CI 1.40-1.57). Without new prevention, costs are projected to reach 12.60 million USD by 2035; a 30% smoking reduction and a combined package including radon mitigation and dysphonia screening would lower 2035 costs to 10.33 and 9.07 million USD. Conclusions: Demographic aging and sustained case volume will markedly increase hospital costs, while prevention scenarios are associated with lower projected inpatient expenditure.