Febrile seizures: Are they truly benign? Longitudinal analysis of risk factors and future risk of afebrile epileptic seizure based on the national sample cohort in South Korea, 2002-2013.

PURPOSE: We performed a large, population-based study to analyze the risk factors of the febrile seizures and the subsequent afebrile epileptic seizures.

METHODS

Relevant data from children born between 2002-2007 were retrieved from the Korean National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort 2002-2013. Children who did not survive the first five years were excluded from the analysis. The risk factors for febrile seizures were assessed separately in per-person and per-febrile case analyses, and factors contributing to an increased risk of subsequent afebrile epileptic seizures were identified.

RESULTS

A total of 54,233 children were included and the five-year prevalence rate of febrile seizure was 11.19%. In the per-person analysis, male sex, preterm birth and brain injury at birth increased the risk of febrile seizure with odds ratios of 1.17, 1.40 and 1.97 (all p < 0.001), respectively. A high household income level was associated with reduced odds of febrile seizure. In the per-febrile illness analysis, male sex, brain injury at birth, presumed bacterial infection, gastrointestinal or genitourinary infection and unspecified sepsis were independent risk factors of a febrile seizure during febrile illness. The cumulative number of febrile seizure episodes, especially more than the third episodes, was associated with a new diagnosis of an afebrile epileptic seizure within one year.

CONCLUSION

Sex, preterm birth, brain injury at birth, presumed bacterial infection, genitourinary and gastrointestinal infections and unspecified sepsis were identified as likely risk factors for febrile seizures. A greater number of febrile seizure episodes was associated with a higher probability of subsequent afebrile epileptic seizures.