Early Identification of Children at Risk for Long-Term Difficulties with Mathematics Learning and Innumeracy in Adolescence.

Children who start school behind in mathematics are at-risk of staying behind throughout schooling and into adulthood. Unfortunately, there is no consensus on the best criteria for the early identification of these at-risk students. Using a unique 1st to 10th grade study of academic development (n = 445), we assessed the sensitivity and specificity of different ability-achievement and achievement-only criteria for identifying risk of mathematics learning difficulties (MLD) and adolescent innumeracy. The outcome criterion was based on the risk of innumeracy in 10th grade (< 25th mathematics percentile). The achievement-only cutoffs were mathematics scores below the 10th to 35th percentile (at 5 percentile increments, inclusive) in 1st grade and across 1st and 2nd grade, and teacher-reported in-class attentive behavior. The best combination of sensitivity (.589) and specificity (.878) was found for an achievement cutoff below the 25th percentile in 1st grade. We then examined growth in mathematics from 1st to 10th grade for different at-risk and typically achievement groups using latent score change (LCS) models. The models revealed that at-risk students were behind their peers in 1st grade, with a widening gap across the school years. However, not all at-risk students were identified indicating that additional factors need to be considered in follow-up studies. Until that time, low-achieving 1st graders, independent of cognitive ability, attentive behavior, and parental socioeconomic status, are at risk for long-term difficulties in mathematics and innumeracy in adolescence.