Risk Factors of Lower Extremity Deep Vein Thrombosis After Artificial Femoral Head Replacement for Elderly Femoral Neck Fractures and a Nomogram Model Construction.

OBJECTIVE

To assess lower extremity deep vein thrombosis (DVT) risk factors after artificial femoral head replacement for elderly femoral neck fractures. A nomogram model was constructed to predict its risk.

METHODS

In analyzing 144 participants who underwent artificial femoral head replacement for elderly femoral neck fractures, researchers collected clinical data to identify factors associated with lower extremity DVT. The study collected numerous variables ranging from age and sex to history of lower extremity DVT and use of anticoagulant drugs after surgery. The patients were in two groups: those who developed DVT (n = 62) and those who did not (n = 82). Multivariate logistic regression analysis helped to identify factors influencing the occurrence of DVT after artificial femoral head replacement. The software packages used were R 4.1.0 and RMS.

RESULTS

Univariate and multivariate regression analysis identified age, ASA level, D-dimer of lower limb DVT, ALB, and PLT as predictive risk factors of lower extremity DVT after artificial femoral head replacement for elderly femoral neck fractures. Those risk factors were used to construct a clinical predictive nomogram. The calibration curves for hypertension in patients with OSAHS risk revealed excellent accuracy of the predictive nomogram model. The unadjusted concordance index (C-index) for the model was 0.877 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.805-0.942]. The AUC was 0.8375002. Decision curve analysis showed that the predictive model could be applied clinically when the threshold probability was 20 to 80%.

CONCLUSIONS

The researchers constructed and validated a clinical nomogram to predict the occurrence of lower extremity DVT after artificial femoral head replacement in elderly patients with femoral neck fractures. Age, ASA level, D-dimer, and history of lower limb DVT, ALB, and PLT were demonstrated to be predictive risk factors of lower extremity DVT in this circumstance. This practical prognostic nomogram may help improve clinical decision-making.