Violence Against Politicians Drives Support for Political Violence Among (Some) Voters: Evidence from a Natural Experiment.

We investigate whether a real-world episode of physical violence committed in October 2023 against Thierry Baudet, leader of the Dutch far-right FvD, conditioned a differential support for political violence among different voters: voters ideologically close to the target of the attack (in-group) and voters experiencing partisan Schadenfreude toward the party of the target (out-group). The unexpectedness of the attack makes it an excellent case of exogenous treatment in a natural experiment ("Unexpected Event during Survey Design). The fact that the attack occurred in the midst of a survey unfolding a rolling cross-section design yields likely more robust estimations than usually found in similar natural experiments. Our results indicate that the attack against Baudet slightly normalized political violence in the short term. While no specific uptick of support for violence was measured among respondents close to the FvD, in the short and medium term the attack furthermore slightly increased support for violence among respondents who dislike the FvD and experience partisan Schadenfreude.