[Analysis and Prediction of the Zero-carbon Park Initiative in Anhui Jieshou High-tech Industrial Development Zone].

Taking the Anhui Jieshou High-Tech Industrial Development Zone as the research object， we analyzed the current carbon emissions of the park in the past five years （2019-2023）， combining the logarithmic Mean Di Index （LMDI） model to analyze the driving factors， and forecasting emission trajectories under three scenarios （baseline S1， policy-driven S2， and enhanced mitigation S3） via the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System （LEAP） model. The results showed that the total carbon emissions of the park in the past five years have still been in the growth stage， mainly due to power consumption （accounting for 84.48%） and high energy-consuming industries （such as non-ferrous metal smelting， electrical machinery manufacturing， etc.）. The economic development effect was the core driving force for the growth of carbon emissions， while energy intensity and structural optimization showed inhibitory effects. LEAP's forecast indicated that under the Enhanced Emission Reduction Scenario （S3）， industrial parks could achieve carbon peaking （574，600 tons） by 2030 and approach carbon neutrality around 2040. Under the benchmark scenario （S1）， carbon emissions continued to increase， failing to achieve the "dual carbon" goals. Finally， tailored to the park's features， the study proposes recommendations establishing a theoretical framework and actionable pathways for zero-carbon industrial parks， while offering references for the low-carbon transition of similar industrial parks.