Enhanced Assessment of Perioperative Mortality Risk in Adults With Congenital Heart Disease.

BACKGROUND

In-hospital mortality is a rare, yet feared complication following cardiac surgery in adult congenital heart disease (ACHD). A risk score, developed and validated in ACHD, can be helpful to optimize risk assessment.

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to assess the performance of EuroSCORE II components and procedure-related Adult Congenital Heart Surgery (ACHS) score, identify additional risk factors, and develop a novel risk score for predicting in-hospital mortality after ACHD surgery.

METHODS

We assessed perioperative survival in patients aged >16 years undergoing congenital heart surgery in a large tertiary center between 2003 and 2019. A risk variable-derived PEACH (PErioperative ACHd) score was calculated for each patient. Internal and external validation of the model was undertaken, including testing in a validation cohort of patients operated in a second European ACHD center.

RESULTS

The development cohort comprised 1,782 procedures performed during the study period. Re-sternotomy was undertaken in 897 (50.3%). There were 31 (1.7%) in-hospital deaths. The PEACH score showed excellent discrimination ability (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.88; 95% CI: 0.83-0.94), and performed better than the ACHS score in our population (ACHS AUC: 0.69; 95% CI: 0.6-0.78; P = 0.0003). A simple 3-tiered risk stratification was formed: PEACH score 0 (in-hospital mortality 0.2%), 1-2 (3.6%), and ≥3 (17.2%). In a validation cohort of 975 procedures, the PEACH score retained its discriminative ability (AUC: 0.75; 95% CI: 0.72-0.77) and was well calibrated (Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square goodness-of-fit P = 0.55). There was agreement in expected and observed perioperative mortality between cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

The PEACH score is a simple, novel perioperative risk score developed and validated specifically for ACHD patients undergoing cardiac surgery.