Correlation of anthropometric parameters with serum progesterone levels for the prediction of ovulation in infertile women in Ile-Ife, Nigeria.

OBJECTIVE

To correlate anthropometric parameters with serum levels of progesterone (P4) for the prediction of ovulation in infertile women.

METHODS

Body mass index (BMI), cormic index (CI), waist-hip ratio (WHR), waist-height ratio (WHtR), neck circumference (NC) and triceps skinfold thickness (TSF) were measured for 60 anovulatory and ovulatory infertile women, and fertile controls. Blood samples of the women were taken at the mid-luteal phases of their menstrual cycles to determine their serum P4 levels. Pearson correlation coefficient was used to correlate the anthropometric parameters with serum P4 levels. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was utilized to determine critical anthropometry values to predict ovulation.

RESULTS

Mid-luteal P4 had a significant moderate negative correlation with WHtR (r = -0.346, P = 0.008). Cormic index correlated significantly with WHtR (r = 0.265, P = 0.049). A CI of ≤43.6 was the best predictor of ovulation with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.659 (95% CI: 0.511-0.806), with sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of 78.8%, 57.1%, 75.7%, and 61.9%, respectively. A WHR of ≤0.83 was the second most accurate predictor of ovulation with an AUC of 0.559 (95% CI: 0.404-0.714), with sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV, respectively, of 77.8%, 31.8%, 65.1% and 46.7%.

CONCLUSION

Cormic index could potentially be used alone or in combination with WHR and WHtR to predict ovulation amongst infertile women, obviating the need for routine costly hormonal assays. This would be especially useful in low-resource settings with high levels of poverty, where insurance does not cover infertility investigations.