Research square · 2026

Integrated surveillance resolves Darién paradox of Oropouche virus emergence in Panama's migration corridor.

СтатьяПрепринтНазвание и аннотация: Перевод в очереди

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Rodríguez Xacdiel, Perez-Jimenez Juan G, Alexander Laura W, Lezcano-Coba Carlos, Galué Josefrancisco, Juárez Yelissa, Beltrán Davis, Smith Darci R, Kadir Malik, Ali Danielle W, Corrales Rita, Rodriguez Lidimarie Trujillo, Valdiviezo Ghyssella E, Thomas Quinn K, Cicalo Anthony, Fitzpatrick Maren, Luquette Andrea, Sayer Cameron, Cer Regina Z, Malagon Francisco, Grajales Ilka Anabel, Rivera Luis Felipe, González-R Zuleyka, Antioco Juan, Walters-Valdes Ellianys, Meneghello-Ponce Niccolò, Vittor Amy Y, Escobar-Lee Kiriam, Abouganem-Shaw Aaron, Rodríguez Fátima, Aguirre Eduardo, Loyola Steev, Tinoco Yeny, Moreno Brechla, Chen-Germán María, Gómez-Angelo Adrean, Correa-Duarte Samir, Acevedo José, Ramos Blas, de Antinori Maria Eugenia, Gonzalez Claudia, Chavarria Oris, Gondola Jessica, Moreno Ambar, Aguilar Celestino, Gonzáles Pablo, Jackman Carmela, Cedeño Hector, Gutiérrez Bernardo, Kraemer Moritz U G, Saldaña Victor, DeAntonio Rodrigo, Martinez Alexander A, Armién Blas, Pascale Juan Miguel, Calvo Arlene, Nogueira Mauricio L, de Souza William M, Hanley Kathryn A, Faria Nuno R, Dorigatti Ilaria, Waggoner Jesse, Vasilakis Nikos, Donnelly Christl A, López-Vergès Sandra, Bishop-Lilly Kimberly A, Mavian Carla, Bento Ana I, Carrera Jean-Paul

Аннотация

Oropouche virus (OROV) spread across the Americas in 2024, yet Panama's Darién migration corridor saw no outbreak until nearly a year after Brazil's January 2024 peak, raising two hypotheses: cryptic circulation masked by diagnostic gaps, or recent introduction under permissive climatic conditions. Here we resolve this paradox using integrated clinical, genomic, and climate-informed surveillance. Among 1,040 individuals tested, 43% were OROV-positive and showed a clinical signature distinct from co-circulating arboviruses, including headache more frequent than in dengue (RR 2.38, 95% CI 1.74-3.24). The household secondary attack rate was 56%, and waste burning independently predicted infection. Phylogeographic reconstruction identified a single recent introduction in October 2024 with no evidence of adaptive evolution, excluding prolonged cryptic persistence. Climate-informed models indicate broad outbreak susceptibility across Panama, with Bocas del Toro and Los Santos as the next highest-risk provinces. These findings identify a Central American foothold for OROV with potential for further northward spread.

Integrated surveillance resolves Darién paradox of Oropouche virus emergence in Panama's migration corridor.

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Аннотация