Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene · 2004
The influence of climate on the epidemiology of bartonellosis in Ancash, Peru.
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Chinga-Alayo E, Huarcaya E, Nasarre C, del Aguila R, Llanos-Cuentas A
Аннотация
The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between bartonellosis and selected climatic factors during the time periods 1983-1988 and 1995-99, which included two events of the El Niño phenomenon (1986-88, 1997-98), and to identify a reliable climate parameter to be used as an alert indicator for bartonellosis outbreaks in Ancash. The study site was Ancash and its province Carhuaz, Peru. Time-series cross-correlation analysis was used to assess the association between bartonellosis and climate parameters. A higher, almost 4-fold, monthly bartonellosis incidence risk in Ancash department was observed during the El Niño events of 1986-88 and 1997-98. At a regional (Ancash department) and local level (Carhuaz, Ancash), the best correlation was observed between bartonellosis and sea-surface temperature (SST). The results indicate that SST would be the best climate parameter to be used as an alert indicator for bartonellosis outbreaks in Ancash.