Journal of cancer policy · 2026
Cancer awareness months in Mexico drive online search spikes but are not associated with short-term increases in breast cancer surveillance reports.
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Hernandez-Felix Jorge H, Gutierrez-Leon Eduardo, Chavarri-Guerra Yanin, Huitzil-Melendez Fidel David, Meneses-Medina Monica Isabel
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: Cancer awareness months aim to convert public attention into health-seeking behavior and earlier diagnosis, but whether this occurs in Mexico remains unclear. We evaluated whether awareness months in Mexico were associated with increased online search interest and whether Breast Cancer Awareness Month (October) was associated with short-term changes in breast cancer notifications in the national surveillance system.
METHODS: We analyzed Google Trends monthly Search Volume Index (SVI) for breast, prostate, and colorectal cancers in Mexico (2010-2019). Interrupted time-series models estimated level changes during campaign months. For breast cancer, SVI was linked to monthly SUIVE incident counts using Welch's t-tests, seasonality-adjusted interrupted time series, and transfer-function models with lags of 0-3 months.
RESULTS: Awareness months were consistently associated with recurrent SVI spikes: October for breast cancer (+30.98 SVI points, 95% CI 29.58-32.38), November for prostate (+21.62, 95% CI 16.99-26.23), and March for colorectal (+4.58, 95% CI -2.45 to +11.61; p = 0.201). Breast cancer incident reports increased over the decade but showed no significant contemporaneous or short-lag increase in October; associations between search interest and reported cases were small and inconsistent.
CONCLUSION: In Mexico, cancer awareness months reliably mobilize digital attention but do not translate into near-term increases in breast cancer notifications. These findings indicate a mismatch between campaign-related attention and one downstream surveillance metric.
POLICY SUMMARY: Awareness months generate digital attention, but this attention did not translate into short-term increases in breast cancer reporting. Monthly operational indicators and strengthened diagnostic pathways are needed to turn attention into timely evaluation and earlier diagnosis.
METHODS: We analyzed Google Trends monthly Search Volume Index (SVI) for breast, prostate, and colorectal cancers in Mexico (2010-2019). Interrupted time-series models estimated level changes during campaign months. For breast cancer, SVI was linked to monthly SUIVE incident counts using Welch's t-tests, seasonality-adjusted interrupted time series, and transfer-function models with lags of 0-3 months.
RESULTS: Awareness months were consistently associated with recurrent SVI spikes: October for breast cancer (+30.98 SVI points, 95% CI 29.58-32.38), November for prostate (+21.62, 95% CI 16.99-26.23), and March for colorectal (+4.58, 95% CI -2.45 to +11.61; p = 0.201). Breast cancer incident reports increased over the decade but showed no significant contemporaneous or short-lag increase in October; associations between search interest and reported cases were small and inconsistent.
CONCLUSION: In Mexico, cancer awareness months reliably mobilize digital attention but do not translate into near-term increases in breast cancer notifications. These findings indicate a mismatch between campaign-related attention and one downstream surveillance metric.
POLICY SUMMARY: Awareness months generate digital attention, but this attention did not translate into short-term increases in breast cancer reporting. Monthly operational indicators and strengthened diagnostic pathways are needed to turn attention into timely evaluation and earlier diagnosis.