Prior Calf Strain as a Risk Factor for Achilles Tendon Rupture in National Basketball Association Players: A Retrospective Analysis.

BACKGROUND

Achilles tendon ruptures are among the most debilitating injuries in professional basketball, often leading to prolonged absence and long-term performance decline. While calf strains are common among National Basketball Association (NBA) athletes, their role as a precursor to Achilles rupture remains poorly understood.

HYPOTHESIS: A previous calf strain would be associated with increased odds of Achilles tendon rupture in NBA players and that affected players would experience significant post-injury performance declines.

STUDY

DESIGN

Case-cohort study; Level of evidence, 3.

METHODS

Publicly available data on NBA players from 1958 to 2024 were analyzed, with the data search conducted in June 2025. Players with Achilles ruptures (n = 60) were compared with players with calf strains who did not sustain a rupture (n = 258). Logistic regression adjusted for age, body mass index, position, starter status, and workload. Pre- and postinjury performance was evaluated over 2 seasons using paired t tests. Descriptive analyses characterized injury laterality, game context, quarter, shoe type, and draft position. Video review assessed injury mechanisms.

RESULTS

Previous calf strain was associated with increased odds of Achilles rupture (odds ratio, 2.49; 95% CI, 1.16-5.22; P = .02). Among those with both injuries, 85.7% occurred on the same side, with a mean interval of 1.9 years. Of all players, a total of 75% returned to play. Postinjury declines were observed in player efficiency rating (-2.46), win shares (-3.23), games played (-260.3), and minutes per game (-5.19) (all P < .001). Return was more likely in younger players and those on multiyear contracts. Video analysis revealed a consistent "false step" mechanism in 95% of cases with footage. Most Achilles tendon ruptures occurred during in-game activity, while shoe type was evaluated descriptively and was not associated with player position or preinjury workload.

CONCLUSION

Our study showed that previous calf strain is associated with an increased risk of Achilles tendon rupture in NBA players and may serve as a clinically identifiable risk marker. Rupture leads to substantial and sustained performance decline, even among those who return. Targeted rehabilitation and movement retraining may help mitigate progression to rupture in high-risk athletes.