The trends of congenital heart defects burden in BRICS-plus from 1990 to 2021 and its projection to 2035.

BACKGROUND: Congenital heart defects (CHDs) are the most common birth defects. Previous studies indicate CHD accounted for approximately 261,247 global deaths in 2017. This study aims to analyze the burden of CHD across BRICS-plus nations from 1990 to 2021 and to project the burden of CHD in the BRICS-plus from 2021 to 2035. METHODS: This is a descriptive observational study analyzing population-level trends in the burden of congenital heart disease across BRICS-plus nations using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. The GBD 2021 database was searched to collect the incidence, prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of CHDs in the BRICS-plus. Trends in the burden of CHD from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed. Additionally, employed Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model to forecast the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs rates of CHD by 2035. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, the annual average percentage change (AAPC) in both age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rates (ASDR) for coronary heart disease across all BRICS-plus countries remained below zero, indicating a significant downward trend. In the 2021 SDI analysis, SDI showed negative correlations with both ASDR and ASMR of CHD. Males exhibit higher levels of ASMR and ASDR than females. Projections indicate that Russia’s ASIR and the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) ASPR will show an upward trend from 2021 to 2035. CONCLUSION: The BRICS-plus nations continue to face a substantial burden of CHD, with significant variations observed among member states. Notably, several CHD prevention and control strategies implemented across BRICS-plus countries offer valuable models for other developing nations.