Equine veterinary journal · 2026
Development of a prognostic scoring system for systemic inflammatory response syndrome in donkeys.
СтатьяНазвание и аннотация: Перевод в очереди
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Barnabé Marine A, Bamford Nicholas J, Elliott Jonathan, Chang Yu-Mei, Rickards Karen, Menzies-Gow Nicola J
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: Systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) is associated with increased mortality in horses with gastrointestinal (GI) disease. However, there are no data relating to naturally occurring SIRS in donkeys.
OBJECTIVES: To determine SIRS frequency in donkeys with GI disease. To develop a donkey-specific prognostic SIRS score.
STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective case series.
METHODS: Clinical records from donkeys presenting with GI disease in two independent cohorts (development cohort: n = 400, UK; validation cohort: n = 36, Australia) were reviewed. Age, sex, heart rate, respiratory rate, rectal temperature, white blood cell count (WBCC), neutrophil%, neutrophil count, packed cell volume (PCV), total protein (TP), PCV/TP ratio, triglycerides, albumin, creatinine, urea, serum amyloid A, and outcome were recorded. SIRS scores validated for horses (hSIRS, 0-4) were calculated. Prognostic factors were identified in the development cohort using generalised estimating equations and receiver operator characteristic analysis. A novel donkey SIRS score (dSIRS, 0-6) was developed and applied to the second cohort for validation. A traffic light system was further devised to classify individuals as low-, medium-, and high-risk of non-survival.
RESULTS: In the development cohort, 32.1% cases fulfilled the hSIRS criteria. The fatality rate was 45.6% in these cases. Only two of the hSIRS criteria (heart rate >56 bpm; WBCC <5.2 or >13.8 × 109/L) were significant predictors of outcome. The dSIRS score included heart rate, WBCC, age (15-25; or >25 years), PCV/TP ratio (>0.5725), and [triglyceride] (>2.8 mmol/L). In the development cohort, the dSIRS score predicted outcome with 78.3% accuracy (sensitivity: 62.7% [95% CI: 51.9-72.3]; specificity: 83.5% [78.4-87.5]). In the validation cohort, accuracy was 81% (sensitivity: 100% [79.6-100.0], specificity: 47.6% [28.3-67.6]).
MAIN LIMITATIONS: Retrospective study, small validation cohort.
CONCLUSIONS: The frequency of SIRS and associated fatality rate in donkeys with GI disease is high. After further validation through a prospective study, the dSIRS score could be a valuable prognostic tool.
OBJECTIVES: To determine SIRS frequency in donkeys with GI disease. To develop a donkey-specific prognostic SIRS score.
STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective case series.
METHODS: Clinical records from donkeys presenting with GI disease in two independent cohorts (development cohort: n = 400, UK; validation cohort: n = 36, Australia) were reviewed. Age, sex, heart rate, respiratory rate, rectal temperature, white blood cell count (WBCC), neutrophil%, neutrophil count, packed cell volume (PCV), total protein (TP), PCV/TP ratio, triglycerides, albumin, creatinine, urea, serum amyloid A, and outcome were recorded. SIRS scores validated for horses (hSIRS, 0-4) were calculated. Prognostic factors were identified in the development cohort using generalised estimating equations and receiver operator characteristic analysis. A novel donkey SIRS score (dSIRS, 0-6) was developed and applied to the second cohort for validation. A traffic light system was further devised to classify individuals as low-, medium-, and high-risk of non-survival.
RESULTS: In the development cohort, 32.1% cases fulfilled the hSIRS criteria. The fatality rate was 45.6% in these cases. Only two of the hSIRS criteria (heart rate >56 bpm; WBCC <5.2 or >13.8 × 109/L) were significant predictors of outcome. The dSIRS score included heart rate, WBCC, age (15-25; or >25 years), PCV/TP ratio (>0.5725), and [triglyceride] (>2.8 mmol/L). In the development cohort, the dSIRS score predicted outcome with 78.3% accuracy (sensitivity: 62.7% [95% CI: 51.9-72.3]; specificity: 83.5% [78.4-87.5]). In the validation cohort, accuracy was 81% (sensitivity: 100% [79.6-100.0], specificity: 47.6% [28.3-67.6]).
MAIN LIMITATIONS: Retrospective study, small validation cohort.
CONCLUSIONS: The frequency of SIRS and associated fatality rate in donkeys with GI disease is high. After further validation through a prospective study, the dSIRS score could be a valuable prognostic tool.