Echocardiography (Mount Kisco, N.Y.) · 2024
Development and Validation of an Individualized Nomogram for Predicting Patent Foramen Ovale-Associated Stroke: Patent Foramen Ovale Morphology-Based Analysis.
СтатьяНаблюдательное исследованиеВалидационное исследованиеНазвание и аннотация: Перевод в очереди
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Zhang Qin, Xiao Mochao, Lu Wuzhu, Lin Yuhong, Gao Ziqing, Chen Yuzhuo, Tian Jiali, Su Zhongzhen, Chen Xiaobo
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: We previously reported four patent foramen ovale (PFO) morphological types that influenced right-to-left shunt (RLS) grades. Herein, we aimed to study the relationship between PFO morphology and cryptogenic stroke (CS). We further developed a nomogram based on four PFO morphological types and functional parameters to guide clinicians in judging the risk of PFO-associated stroke.
METHODS: This was a retrospective observational study involving adult patients with PFO between January 2020 and November 2022. Patients were divided into a PFO-associated stroke group (CS group) and a group without cryptogenic stroke (non-CS group). Four types of PFO and RLS grades were analyzed. Nomograms were made to predict PFO-associated stroke using multivariable logistic regression analysis. The discrimination performance of the model was internally validated and assessed using the receiver operating characteristic.
RESULTS: We enrolled 389 patients (male, 182 patients; female, 207 patients) with PFO, the mean age was 43.3 ± 8.1 years. The derivation cohort comprised 293 patients (CS group, 186 patients; non-CS group, 107 patients). The predictive nomogram comprised PFO morphological types, interatrial septum (IAS) mobility distance, septum primum thickness, PFO channel length at rest, and contrast-transthoracic echocardiography (c-TTE) RLS grade during the Valsalva maneuver. A validation cohort was established (CS group, 61 patients; non-CS group, 35 patients). The model area under the curve (AUC) was 0.891 (95% confidence interval = 0.855-0.928) in the derivation cohort and 0.935 (95% confidence interval = 0.885-0.986) in the validation cohort. Calibration curve analysis showed that the nomogram had a C-index of 0.891 in the derivation cohort and 0.935 in the validation cohort. The decision curve analysis (DCA) indicated that the nomogram had clinical applicability.
CONCLUSIONS: Adding four PFO morphological types improved the risk stratification capability for PFO-associated stroke. The nomogram can identify high or low-risk PFO individuals and select patients who will likely benefit from interventional device closure.
METHODS: This was a retrospective observational study involving adult patients with PFO between January 2020 and November 2022. Patients were divided into a PFO-associated stroke group (CS group) and a group without cryptogenic stroke (non-CS group). Four types of PFO and RLS grades were analyzed. Nomograms were made to predict PFO-associated stroke using multivariable logistic regression analysis. The discrimination performance of the model was internally validated and assessed using the receiver operating characteristic.
RESULTS: We enrolled 389 patients (male, 182 patients; female, 207 patients) with PFO, the mean age was 43.3 ± 8.1 years. The derivation cohort comprised 293 patients (CS group, 186 patients; non-CS group, 107 patients). The predictive nomogram comprised PFO morphological types, interatrial septum (IAS) mobility distance, septum primum thickness, PFO channel length at rest, and contrast-transthoracic echocardiography (c-TTE) RLS grade during the Valsalva maneuver. A validation cohort was established (CS group, 61 patients; non-CS group, 35 patients). The model area under the curve (AUC) was 0.891 (95% confidence interval = 0.855-0.928) in the derivation cohort and 0.935 (95% confidence interval = 0.885-0.986) in the validation cohort. Calibration curve analysis showed that the nomogram had a C-index of 0.891 in the derivation cohort and 0.935 in the validation cohort. The decision curve analysis (DCA) indicated that the nomogram had clinical applicability.
CONCLUSIONS: Adding four PFO morphological types improved the risk stratification capability for PFO-associated stroke. The nomogram can identify high or low-risk PFO individuals and select patients who will likely benefit from interventional device closure.