Variation in meningioma recurrence risk estimates across observational cohorts: the influence of calendar time, WHO classifications, geographical settings, and healthcare systems.
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Mirian Christian, Jensen Lasse Rehné, Hoffmann Adam Gorm, Juratli Tareq A, Broechner Anders, Torp Sverre H, Shih Helen A, Morshed Ramin A, Young Jacob S, Magill Stephen T, Bertero Luca, Stummer Walter, Spille Dorothee Cäcilia, Brokinkel Benjamin, Oya Soichi, Miyawaki Satoru, Saito Nobuhito, Proescholdt Martin, Kuroi Yasuhiro, Gousias Konstantinos, Simon Matthias, Moliterno Jennifer, Prat-Acin Ricardo, Goutagny Stéphane, Prabhu Vikram C, Tsiang John T, Wach Johannes, Güresir Erdem, Yamamoto Junkoh, Kim Young Zoon, Lee Joo Ho, Kim Daniel W, Koshy Matthew, Perumal Karthikeyan, Baskaya Mustafa K, Cannon Donald M, Shrieve Dennis C, Suh Chang-Ok, Chang Jong Hee, Kamenova Maria, Straumann Sven, Soleman Jehuda, Eyüpoglu Ilker Y, Catalan Tony, Lui Austin, Theodosopoulos Philip V, McDermott Michael W, Wang Fang, Góes Pedro, de Paiva Neto Manoel Antonio, Komotar Ricardo, Ivan Michael E, Jamshidi Aria, Luther Evan, Souhami Luis, Guiot Marie-Christine, Csonka Tamás, Endo Toshiki, Barrett Olivia Claire, Jensen Randy, Gupta Tejpal, Patel Akash J, Klisch Tiemo J, Kim Jun Won, Maiuri Francesco, Barresi Valeria, Tabernero María Dolores, Skyrman Simon, Law Ian, Kristensen Bjarne Winther, Munch Tina Nørgaard, Meling Torstein, Fugleholm Kåre, Blanche Paul, Mathiesen Tiit, Maier Andrea Daniela
Аннотация
RESULTS: Recurrence risk estimates varied across all domains examined. More recent calendar periods were associated with higher predicted recurrence risk, particularly for WHO-2 at 5 years (e.g., ≥ 2013 vs. ≤ 2007: RR 1.60, 95% CI 1.19-2.01). Differences were also observed across healthcare systems and geographical settings despite adjustment. In contrast, recurrence risk estimates were broadly comparable between WHO classification editions (2007 vs. 2016). Cohort-level visualization revealed substantial heterogeneity in follow-up duration, inclusion patterns, and recurrence detection.
CONCLUSIONS: Recurrence risk estimates are not stable across time or settings and are influenced by several patterns, particularly data accrual patterns. Recurrence events are inherently "locked" to the historical context in which they were detected, which may have important implications for developing molecular classifiers using retrospective specimens and clinical trials relying on benchmark established in historical settings. We propose transparent visualization of observational cohort composition and individual-level event timing to improve interpretability and comparability.