Establishing a nomogram for predicting necrotizing enterocolitis in premature infants: A retrospective multicenter cohort study.

BACKGROUND

To construct a nomogram for predicting necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) in preterm infants.

METHODS

A total of 4,724 preterm infants who were admitted into 8 hospitals between April 2019 and September 2020 were initially enrolled this retrospective multicenter cohort study. Finally, 1,092 eligible cases were divided into training set and test set based on a 7:3 ratio. A univariate logistic regression analysis was performed to compare the variables between the two groups. Stepwise backward regression, LASSO regression, and Boruta feature selection were utilized in the multivariate analysis to identify independent risk factors. Then a nomogram model was constructed based on the identified risk factors.

RESULTS

Risk factors for NEC included gestational diabetes mellitus, gestational age, small for gestational age, patent ductus arteriosus, septicemia, red blood cell transfusion, intravenous immunoglobulin, severe feeding intolerance, and absence of breastfeeding. The nomogram model developed based on these factors showed well discriminative ability. Calibration and decision curve analysis curves confirmed the good consistency and clinical utility of the model.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a nomogram model with strong discriminative ability, consistency, and clinical utility for predicting NEC. This model could be valuable for the early prediction of preterm infants at risk of developing NEC.