A theoretical analysis of the relations between the risk of congenital toxoplasmosis and the annual infection rates with a convincing argument for better public intervention.

In a theoretical analysis of the present study, we quantitatively indicate a potential threat of congenital toxoplasmosis to Japanese young women by the use of a simple mathematical model or a special case of the well-known catalytic infection model. For introducing a risk function of congenital toxoplasmosis, an annual infection rate, r, was divided into r(1), the rate before age a(0 < a < 15), and r(2), the rate after age a. Presuming the values of r(1), r(2) and a on the basis of the current situation of Toxoplasma infection in Japan, simulation analyses were performed with the mathematical model. As the simulation clearly demonstrated, Japanese young women are potentially facing a threat of congenital toxoplasmosis, although the current risk of it is relatively lower. From the viewpoint of risk management, public intervention programs are required. Based on our analyses, public intervention programs can be classified into two groups: group 1 for women before age a and group 2 for those after age a, and each group is expected to give a different kind of effect to the risk of congenital toxoplasmosis. The present study implies that a certain public intervention program could augment the risk, inadvertently.