Does Prediction of Neonatal Mortality by the Observed/Expected Lung-To-Head Ratio Change during Pregnancy in Fetuses with Left Congenital Diaphragmatic Hernia?

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study was to evaluate prediction of neonatal mortality in fetuses with isolated left congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) when the observed/expected lung-to-head ratio (O/E LHR) was estimated at two different gestational time points during pregnancy.

METHODS

Forty-four (44) fetuses with isolated left CDH were included. O/E LHR was estimated at the time of referral (first scan) and before delivery (last scan). The main outcome was neonatal death due to respiratory complications.

RESULTS

There were 10/44 (22.7%) perinatal deaths. The areas under (AU) the ROC curves were: first scan, 0.76, best O/E LHR cut-off 35.5% with 76% sensitivity and 70% specificity; last scan, AU-ROC 0.79, best O/E LHR cut-off 35.2%, with 79.0% sensitivity and 80% specificity. Considering an O/E LHR cut-off ≤35% to define high-risk fetuses at any examination, prediction for perinatal mortality showed: 80% sensitivity, 73.5% specificity, 47.1% positive and 92.6% negative predictive values, and 3.02 (95% CI 1.59-5.73) positive and 0.27 (95% CI 0.08-0.96) negative likelihood ratios. Prediction was similar in the two evaluations as 16/21 (76.2%) of fetuses considered at risk had an O/E LHR ≤35% in the two examinations; in the remaining 5 cases, two were identified only in the first and three only in the last scan.

CONCLUSION

The O/E LHR is a good predictor of perinatal death in fetuses with left isolated CDH. Approximately 80% of fetuses at risk of perinatal death can be identified with an O/E LHR ≤35%, and 90% of them will have similar O/E LHR values at the first and at the last ultrasound examinations prior to delivery. In general, 88.6% of all CDH fetuses have a similar severity classification based on the O/E LHR at the first diagnostic ultrasound or at the ultrasound examination prior to delivery.