Epidemiological trends and future projections of bladder and kidney cancer burden in China, 1990-2041: an ecological study.

BACKGROUND

Bladder cancer (BCa) and kidney cancer are increasingly significant public health concerns in China. However, comprehensive analyses of their long-term disease burden trends and future projections remain limited. This study analyzed trends in incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for BCa and kidney cancer in China from 1990 to 2021 using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data, and projected their future burden over the next two decades.

METHODS

GBD 2021 data were used to evaluate age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR). Trends were assessed using Joinpoint (v5.2.0) and R (v4.5.1) to calculate average annual percentage changes (AAPCs). Future burdens (2022-2041) were forecasted with an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2021, China experienced significant increases in BCa and kidney cancer incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs. For BCa, ASIR and ASPR increased, while ASMR and ASDR decreased relative to 1990. Kidney cancer showed rising ASIR, ASPR, and ASMR, with ASDR slightly declining. AAPC analysis revealed BCa trends of ASIR (+0.12%), ASPR (+1.59%), ASMR (-1.60%), and ASDR (-1.74%); kidney cancer showed ASIR (+2.39%), ASPR (+3.47%), ASMR (+0.41%), and ASDR (-0.01%). Projections suggest BCa ASIR will keep rising in both sexes by 2041, while ASPR will decline, particularly in males. Kidney cancer ASIR is expected to rise in males but stabilize in females, with ASPR remaining steady.

CONCLUSIONS

Between 1990 and 2021, China faced growing burdens of BCa and kidney cancer, with notable sex-specific patterns. Projections highlight the need for targeted, age- and sex-specific prevention and control strategies.