When Grandparents Step Back: Fertility Intentions and Policy Implications in the Context of Delayed Retirement in China.

As countries implement delayed retirement policies to address population aging, reduced availability of grandparental childcare emerges as an unintended consequence that may further depress fertility intentions. This study examines whether household income improvement and formal childcare provision can mitigate the fertility-suppressing effects of diminished grandparental care. Using factorial survey experiments embedded in a national Chinese survey, fertility intentions were assessed under randomized scenarios. Results show grandparental care absence reduced second- and third-birth intentions by 9.82 and 3.97% points, respectively. Annual household income increases and formal childcare availability had the potential to offset these declines. Individuals with higher socioeconomic status required larger improvement in household income to achieve similar fertility intention levels, while affordable, high-quality formal childcare consistently benefited all subgroups. These findings provide novel experimental evidence that integrating delayed retirement reforms with targeted childcare support and sufficient economic incentives may help preserve fertility intentions.