Archives of gynecology and obstetrics · 2012
Predictive model for spontaneous preterm labor among pregnant women with contractions and intact amniotic membranes.
СтатьяНазвание и аннотация: Перевод в очереди
Обработка статьи · этапы, ошибки и управление
Загрузка состояния…
Ошибки и ограничения
История · было → стало
Состояние обновляется каждые 5 секунд, пока блок открыт. Процент показывается только там, где известен объём работы. Пауза останавливает продолжение этапа; текущий запрос к источнику может завершиться.
de Oliveira Ricardo Villar Barbosa, Martins Marília da Glória, Rios Livia Teresa Moreira, Araujo Júnior Edward, Simões Vanda Maria Ferreira, Nardozza Luciano Marcondes Machado, Moron Antonio Fernandes
Аннотация
PURPOSE: To determine a predictive model for supporting decisions relating to the prognosis for women presenting with preterm labor and intact membranes.
METHOD: We conducted a prospective observational cohort study on 70 pregnant women at between 22 and 34 weeks of gestation. Transvaginal sonographic evaluation on the cervix was performed once on women who had completed a course of parenteral tocolysis. The sonographic parameters of cervical length measurement and presence of cervical glandular area were obtained. The outcome variable was occurrences of preterm delivery (<35 weeks). Using a univariate logistic regression model, the coefficients of each independent variable were first estimated. To construct the predictive model, multivariate logistic regression containing all the selected variables that might be related to preterm delivery was used as the starting point. Accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and predictive values were used to measure associations of predicted probabilities and to check the ability of the model to predict outcomes. The predictive analyses were based on logistic regression models, with calculation of odds ratios and 95 % confidence intervals.
RESULTS: The incidence of preterm delivery was 32.80 % (23/70). After validation, the predictive model proposed showed accuracy of 87.88 %, sensitivity of 78.26 % and specificity of 93.02 %.
CONCLUSION: The model presented good accuracy with correspondence between predictions and observations, and has the capacity to become a useful tool for management of pregnant women with preterm labor and intact amniotic membranes.
METHOD: We conducted a prospective observational cohort study on 70 pregnant women at between 22 and 34 weeks of gestation. Transvaginal sonographic evaluation on the cervix was performed once on women who had completed a course of parenteral tocolysis. The sonographic parameters of cervical length measurement and presence of cervical glandular area were obtained. The outcome variable was occurrences of preterm delivery (<35 weeks). Using a univariate logistic regression model, the coefficients of each independent variable were first estimated. To construct the predictive model, multivariate logistic regression containing all the selected variables that might be related to preterm delivery was used as the starting point. Accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and predictive values were used to measure associations of predicted probabilities and to check the ability of the model to predict outcomes. The predictive analyses were based on logistic regression models, with calculation of odds ratios and 95 % confidence intervals.
RESULTS: The incidence of preterm delivery was 32.80 % (23/70). After validation, the predictive model proposed showed accuracy of 87.88 %, sensitivity of 78.26 % and specificity of 93.02 %.
CONCLUSION: The model presented good accuracy with correspondence between predictions and observations, and has the capacity to become a useful tool for management of pregnant women with preterm labor and intact amniotic membranes.