The economic value of preventing projected sepsis-related deaths among adults in 79 countries, 2000-2023, with projections to 2050: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND

Sepsis remains a major global health burden, yet the economic value of reducing avoidable sepsis-related mortality is not well established. This study aimed to evaluate global trends in adult sepsis-related mortality and estimate the economic values of reducing avoidable deaths from sepsis between 2000 and 2023, with projections to 2050.

METHODS

Sepsis-related mortality data for adults aged ≥ 20 years were obtained from 79 countries included in the World Health Organization (WHO) Mortality Database for the period 2000–2023. Bayesian neural network age–period–cohort projections of mortality through 2050, with locally weighted scatterplot smoothing incorporated to stabilize temporal continuity. Avoidable mortality was defined as mortality rates exceeding the 20th percentile derived from a frontier model. The economic value of reducing avoidable mortality to frontier levels was estimated using the value of a statistical life, expressed as a proportion of annual income in 2021 international dollars (Int$). All analyses were stratified by age, sex, and five World Bank–based region, and results are presented with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

Global age-standardized mortality rate from sepsis increased from 9.15 deaths per 100,000 population in 2000 to 12.77 (95% CI, 8.67–17.72) in 2023 and is projected to reach 20.32 (14.61–27.55) in 2050. In 2023, approximately 61.34% of all sepsis-related mortality were considered avoidable, with adults aged ≥ 70 years contributing disproportionately to mortality and, consequently, to the overall economic estimates, reflecting the distribution of mortality rather than any differential valuation of life by age. The global economic value of reducing avoidable deaths was estimated at Int$ 62.6 billion in 2023 (1.41% of annual income). Males had a slightly higher proportion of annual income represented by the estimated economic value (1.48%) than females (1.35%), reflecting differences in income levels and mortality patterns rather than sex-specific preferences. Regional disparities were substantial, highest in North America (1.80%) and lowest in Europe and Central Asia (1.00%).

CONCLUSIONS

Although sepsis-related mortality has increased, most deaths remain avoidable, suggesting substantial scope for improvement. Further reductions in mortality could yield considerable and growing economic benefits, particularly through interventions targeting older adults and high-burden regions.