[Predictors of the course of affective psychoses. A catamnestic study].

A catamnestic study of patients with affective psychoses was carried out in order to identify prognostic criteria of the long-term course of affective psychoses. 34 patients fallen ill for the first time were examined at an average of 6 years after the onset of the disease. 14 patients showed a chronic course, 20 patients appeared not being chronically ill. Chronicity was defined operationally with respect to the catamnestic course and to the findings of the follow-up. The AMDP coded admission data of the two groups were analysed to find out prognostic criteria. The following variables were identified as predictors of a good course of affective psychoses: Vocational advancement and higher monthly income before the onset of the disease, the role of the only bread-winner, symptoms of stupor, sleep disturbances as well as the lack of retardation of thinking and tearfulness. Younger age at the onset of the disease, lacking drug therapy during the catamnestic period and a short hospital treatment during the first phase correlate with a non-chronical course.