[Evolution Characteristics and Driving Factors of the Coupling Network of the Agricultural "Land-Energy-Grain-Carbon" in the Yangtze River Economic Belt].
Аннотация
Based on the multidimensional evaluation indicator system of the agricultural "land-energy-grain-carbon" in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, this study calculates the coupling coordination levels of "land-energy-grain-carbon" in each province from 2011 to 2022 using the revised coupling coordination model. It discusses the structural characteristics of the spatial association network using social network analysis and explores the driving factors of the coupling network evolution using the dynamic exponential random graph model (TERGM). ① From 2011 to 2022, the coupling coordination level of the agricultural "land-energy-grain-carbon" in the Yangtze River Economic Belt has been steadily improved, exhibiting a distinct spatial pattern with higher values at both ends and lower values in the middle region, while regional disparities gradually narrowed. ② There was a regional imbalance and spatial geographical proximity in the coupling correlation intensity of the agricultural "land-energy-grain-carbon" in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The correlation relationship of the coupling network showed a development trend of rising first and then falling and formed a "center-edge" network structure with the downstream region as the center and the midstream and upstream regions as the edges. ③ The evolution of the "land-energy-grain-carbon" coupling network in the Yangtze River Economic Belt was driven by reciprocity, transitivity, and multi-connectivity. The delayed reciprocity and variability, which included time-dependent relationships, were also significant. Additionally, the fiscal support level for agriculture, agricultural technological innovation, green technological innovation, agricultural environmental regulation, and geographical distance all had important impacts on the formation and evolution of the coupling network. The coupling coordination development of "land-energy-grain-carbon" in the Yangtze River Economic Belt showed significant regional differences but was generally improving. The coupling network evolution was driven by both endogenous and exogenous effects.
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