Historical Trends and Implications of the Sex Ratio at Birth in Georgia, 1926-2024.

BACKGROUND

The sex ratio at birth (SRB) is a key demographic indicator, typically stable within a natural range of 102-106 male births per 100 female births. Deviations from this range may reflect biological or non-natural influences, including sex-selective practices. Despite elevated SRB levels in the South Caucasus, Georgia lacks a country-specific historical baseline.

OBJECTIVE

This study reconstructs long-term SRB trends in Georgia from 1926 to 2024, estimates the country-specific natural SRB baseline, and examines Georgia's trajectory within the broader South Caucasus context.

METHODS

We analyzed national demographic data from Georgia, combining historical census data, civil registration records, and United Nations estimates. For 1926-1950, SRB was reconstructed using the sex ratio among children aged 0-4 years and a correction factor derived from 1970-1980 data. Trends were compared with Armenia and Azerbaijan for 1950-2020.

RESULTS

SRB in Georgia remained within the natural range until the late 1980s, generally around 105-106 males per 100 females, with a minimum of 101.2 in 1979. It increased sharply in the 1990s, reaching approximately 111 in the early 2000s, followed by a gradual decline but remained above natural levels through 2020. Armenia and Azerbaijan showed higher peaks, reaching approximately 117.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides the first long-term analysis of the sex ratio at birth (SRB) in Georgia and establishes a country-specific historical baseline, offering a robust benchmark for identifying deviations from the expected natural range.

CONTRIBUTION: This study consolidates a century-long record of the sex ratio at birth (SRB) for Georgia and establishes a demographic baseline for assessing gender imbalances and regional disparities.