The Global Syndemic of Modifiable Cardiovascular Risk Factors Projected From 2025 to 2050.
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Chong Bryan, Jayabaskaran Jayanth, Jauhari Silingga Metta, Chia Jobelle, le Roux Carel W, Mehta Anurag, Dimitriadis Georgios K, Chen Yiming, Toh Sue Anne, Manla Yosef, Al Mahmeed Wael, Chan Siew Pang, Goh Rachel, Nagarajan Srinithy, Li Henry, Kong Gwyneth, Chin Yip Han, Wang Jiong-Wei, Chew Han Shi Jocelyn, Kontopantelis Evangelos, Muthiah Mark, Tan Jack Wei Chieh, Hausenloy Derek, Figtree Gemma A, Mamas Mamas A, Richards A Mark, Nicholls Stephen J, Chan Mark Y, Lip Gregory Y H, Roth Gregory, Mensah George A, Sperling Laurence S, Chew Nicholas W S
Аннотация
OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to forecast geospatial trends of modifiable cardiovascular risk factors, namely high systolic blood pressure (SBP), high fasting plasma glucose, high body mass index (BMI), high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and tobacco use from 2025 to 2050.
METHODS: Historical data on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and mortality from the GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2021 study were used to forecast the burden associated with modifiable cardiovascular risk factors from 2025 to 2050. Trends across GBD super-regions, sex, sociodemographic index, and age groups were examined.
RESULTS: In 2050, high SBP (1,694.2 [95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1,454.6-1,933.9] per 100,000 population) will contribute to the highest age-standardized DALYs, followed by high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (657.6 [95% UI: 511.9-803.3] per 100,000 population), high BMI (495.2 [95% UI: 330.8-659.6] per 100,000 population), tobacco use (493.7 [95% UI: 378.2-609.1] per 100,000 population), and high fasting plasma glucose (466.7 [95% UI: 311.9-621.5] per 100,000 population). Although age-standardized DALY rates will fall across all cardiovascular risk factors from 2025 to 2050, overall crude DALYs associated with cardiovascular risk factors are projected to rise within the same period. High SBP (rising by 99 million DALYs; 44.1% increase), and high BMI (increasing by 44 million DALYs; 88.0% increase) will have the greatest rise in crude DALYs from 2025 to 2050.
CONCLUSIONS: Although the projected decline in age-standardized DALYs of modifiable cardiovascular risk factors suggest improved management of CVDs, crude DALYs will continue to rise due to population growth and aging.