Journal of affective disorders · 2026
Heterogeneous trajectories of adolescent depression and risk of suicidal ideation in emerging adulthood: A seven-wave latent class growth analysis of the Korean Children and Youth Panel Survey 2018.
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Kwon Joonsung
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: Adolescent suicide remains a major public health concern in Korea, yet depressive trajectories from age 13 to emerging adulthood have rarely been examined in nationally representative seven-wave panel data.
METHODS: In the Korean Children and Youth Panel Survey 2018 middle-school first-grade cohort (N = 2452; age 13 at Wave 1; 80% retained at Wave 7), latent class growth analysis (LCGA) was fitted on a 9-item depression scale excluding the suicidal-ideation item and replicated in R lcmm and Mplus. Distal suicidal ideation (SI) used broad SI (E04 ≥ 2) and affirmative SI endorsement (E04 ≥ 3), with missing SI retained as missing. Distal outcomes used Bolck-Croon-Hagenaars (BCH) correction; time-to-event analysis used a class × wave Cox model with ID-level bootstrap (B = 1000).
RESULTS: A four-class solution balanced fit, adjacent-class tests, and interpretability (BIC = 25,228; entropy = 0.66): Stable-Low (25.1%), Persistent-High (10.0%), Decreasing (29.6%), and Late-Increasing (35.3%). BCH-corrected W7 broad SI prevalence was 9.4%, 56.7%, 36.8%, and 66.2%, respectively. Odds ratios versus Stable-Low were 12.63, 5.61, and 18.86 for Persistent-High, Decreasing, and Late-Increasing. The Late-Increasing versus Persistent-High contrast was borderline (OR = 1.49, 95% CI = 1.00-2.25, p = .052), indicating two high-risk pathways rather than a definitive hierarchy.
LIMITATIONS: SI was measured with a single self-report item; entropy was moderate; and trajectory classes overlap calendar time with repeated SI outcomes.
CONCLUSIONS: Persistent-High and Late-Increasing represented two high-risk pathways differing mainly in timing. Repeated assessment across adolescence may help detect late-emerging SI risk.
METHODS: In the Korean Children and Youth Panel Survey 2018 middle-school first-grade cohort (N = 2452; age 13 at Wave 1; 80% retained at Wave 7), latent class growth analysis (LCGA) was fitted on a 9-item depression scale excluding the suicidal-ideation item and replicated in R lcmm and Mplus. Distal suicidal ideation (SI) used broad SI (E04 ≥ 2) and affirmative SI endorsement (E04 ≥ 3), with missing SI retained as missing. Distal outcomes used Bolck-Croon-Hagenaars (BCH) correction; time-to-event analysis used a class × wave Cox model with ID-level bootstrap (B = 1000).
RESULTS: A four-class solution balanced fit, adjacent-class tests, and interpretability (BIC = 25,228; entropy = 0.66): Stable-Low (25.1%), Persistent-High (10.0%), Decreasing (29.6%), and Late-Increasing (35.3%). BCH-corrected W7 broad SI prevalence was 9.4%, 56.7%, 36.8%, and 66.2%, respectively. Odds ratios versus Stable-Low were 12.63, 5.61, and 18.86 for Persistent-High, Decreasing, and Late-Increasing. The Late-Increasing versus Persistent-High contrast was borderline (OR = 1.49, 95% CI = 1.00-2.25, p = .052), indicating two high-risk pathways rather than a definitive hierarchy.
LIMITATIONS: SI was measured with a single self-report item; entropy was moderate; and trajectory classes overlap calendar time with repeated SI outcomes.
CONCLUSIONS: Persistent-High and Late-Increasing represented two high-risk pathways differing mainly in timing. Repeated assessment across adolescence may help detect late-emerging SI risk.