Predicting mortality risk in pediatric severe pneumonia using a CNN-BiLSTM model with dynamic clinical indicators.

BACKGROUND

Severe pneumonia is a leading cause of mortality in children under 5 years old, and there is currently a lack of reliable biomarkers for early warning of adverse outcomes in the ICU. This study aimed to explore effective prognostic biomarkers for severe pneumonia and apply a deep learning model to predict in-hospital mortality in children with severe pneumonia, thereby supporting clinical decision-making.

METHODS

This retrospective prognostic study analyzed clinical data from children under 5 years of age with severe pneumonia from the Pediatric Intensive Care (PIC) database. Patients were categorized according to in-hospital mortality status. Dynamic biomarker screening was performed from longitudinal laboratory data, and a CNN-BiLSTM-based prediction model was subsequently constructed using the selected biomarkers.

RESULTS

Eleven key predictive indicators were identified from the laboratory parameters. The CNN-BiLSTM model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.956 on an independent test set, with a sensitivity of 85.7% and a specificity of 92.7%. Interpretability analysis revealed that lactate, partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2), and pH were the most influential predictors.

CONCLUSION

This study provides an effective tool for dynamic risk stratification in children with severe pneumonia, offering support for timely clinical decision-making in the ICU. Future multi-center studies are still needed to validate the effectiveness of this model.