PloS one · 2026
Spatiotemporal dynamics of the 2025-26 measles resurgence in Mexico: A national scan‑statistic analysis.
СтатьяНазвание и аннотация: Перевод в очереди
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Mendoza-Cano Oliver, Trujillo Xóchitl, Ríos-Silva Mónica, Bricio-Barrios Jaime Alberto, Lugo-Radillo Agustin, Tapia-Vargas Rosa, Venegas-Ramírez Jesús, Ríos-Bracamontes Eder Fernando, Cuevas-Arellano Herguin Benjamin, Cárdenas Yolitzy, Aquino-Santos Raúl, Jiménez-Vieyra Iris Anecxi, Uribe-Ramos Juan Manuel, Benites-Godínez Verónica, Martínez-Díaz Teresa Evangelina, López-Rojas Mario, García-Solórzano Annel, Velázquez-Amador José E, Murillo-Zamora Efrén
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: Following over two decades of eliminated endemic transmission, Mexico experienced a significant measles resurgence in 2025-26. Declining vaccine coverage and pandemic-related service disruptions created subnational immunity gaps. We aimed to characterize the spatiotemporal patterns of this outbreak to identify areas of sustained transmission.
METHODS: We conducted a retrospective surveillance study of all confirmed measles cases reported nationally over a 50-week period (mid-February 2025 to February 10, 2026). Using municipal-level data and population projections, we applied Kulldorff's space-time scan statistic (discrete Poisson model) to identify statistically significant clusters where incidence exceeded population-based expectations.
RESULTS: A total of 8,205 confirmed cases were reported across 337 municipalities during the study period. Overall, 23 space-time clusters were identified, of which 19 were statistically significant (p < 0.001). The primary cluster, located in northern Mexico between epidemiological weeks 6 and 30, represented the focus of transmission, encompassing 89 municipalities and 4,012 cases (relative risk [RR] = 103.7). Secondary clusters reflected additional transmission patterns, including a large late-phase cluster in western Mexico with 1,493 cases (RR = 31.5), as well as several smaller, short-duration micro-outbreaks with markedly elevated localized risk (RR > 200).
CONCLUSIONS: The resurgence of measles was characterized by marked subnational heterogeneity, with both sustained regional transmission and localized surges. A late-stage, low-intensity cluster spanning 244 municipalities suggested a transition toward more diffuse national transmission. These spatiotemporal patterns suggest that geographically differentiated approaches, including subnational surveillance and targeted "mop-up" immunization campaigns, may be needed to address immunity gaps and support efforts toward restoring Mexico's elimination status.
METHODS: We conducted a retrospective surveillance study of all confirmed measles cases reported nationally over a 50-week period (mid-February 2025 to February 10, 2026). Using municipal-level data and population projections, we applied Kulldorff's space-time scan statistic (discrete Poisson model) to identify statistically significant clusters where incidence exceeded population-based expectations.
RESULTS: A total of 8,205 confirmed cases were reported across 337 municipalities during the study period. Overall, 23 space-time clusters were identified, of which 19 were statistically significant (p < 0.001). The primary cluster, located in northern Mexico between epidemiological weeks 6 and 30, represented the focus of transmission, encompassing 89 municipalities and 4,012 cases (relative risk [RR] = 103.7). Secondary clusters reflected additional transmission patterns, including a large late-phase cluster in western Mexico with 1,493 cases (RR = 31.5), as well as several smaller, short-duration micro-outbreaks with markedly elevated localized risk (RR > 200).
CONCLUSIONS: The resurgence of measles was characterized by marked subnational heterogeneity, with both sustained regional transmission and localized surges. A late-stage, low-intensity cluster spanning 244 municipalities suggested a transition toward more diffuse national transmission. These spatiotemporal patterns suggest that geographically differentiated approaches, including subnational surveillance and targeted "mop-up" immunization campaigns, may be needed to address immunity gaps and support efforts toward restoring Mexico's elimination status.