Acute generalized peritonitis in children: A 7-year retrospective study of epidemiological, clinical, and therapeutic profiles in southeastern Morocco and 2-year forecast.

BACKGROUND

Acute generalized peritonitis (AGP) is a life-threatening condition that demands rapid diagnosis and treatment, especially in pediatric patients. However, limited literature is available regarding its epidemiological, clinical, and therapeutic aspects in under-served areas of Morocco, particularly in Southeast provinces. Therefore, this study aims to examine the epidemiological characteristics, clinical and paraclinical presentations, and management of acute generalized peritonitis (AGP) in children aged 0-15 years from 2017 to 2023 with a 2-year forecast.

MATERIALS AND

METHODS

This retrospective study included 115 patients with AGP. Data analysis was conducted using the Chi-square test. Furthermore, the Holt-Winters method was used to forecast the AGP cases from January 2024 to December 2025.

RESULTS

The majority (71.30%) were aged 8-15 years, with a male predominance (65.22%). The most frequent clinical features included fever and abdominal pain (100%) and abdominal guarding (87.83%). Appendicular peritonitis was the most common intraoperative diagnosis (86.09%). Surgical interventions included drainage (100%) and appendectomy (96.52%), with 86.09% of surgeries performed within 24 h. Postoperative complications were rare (4.35%), with septic shock (3.48%) being the most severe. Furthermore, the Holt-Winters model predicts continued variability of trend and seasonality of AGP cases in the upcoming years.

CONCLUSIONS

According to the results of this study, timely surgical management and effective antibiotic therapy were critical for positive outcomes. In addition, the prediction results showed a similar pattern to the actual data concluding that the proposed model can be used to forecast the future cases of AGP in this area.