Sexually transmitted diseases · 2016
Use of the Historical Limits Method to Detect Increases in Primary and Secondary Syphilis, Arizona 2011-2014: An Exploratory Study.
СтатьяПоддержка службы здравоохранения СШАНазвание и аннотация: Перевод в очереди
Обработка статьи · этапы, ошибки и управление
Загрузка состояния…
Ошибки и ограничения
История · было → стало
Состояние обновляется каждые 5 секунд, пока блок открыт. Процент показывается только там, где известен объём работы. Пауза останавливает продолжение этапа; текущий запрос к источнику может завершиться.
Mireles Joe Robert, Ereth Roxanne, Mickey Tom, May Richard, Taylor Melanie M
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: Increasing numbers of reported primary and secondary (P&S) syphilis cases in the United States suggest the need for improved surveillance methods. An outbreak detection method using reported syphilis test results, which can be counted before the conclusion of a syphilis case investigation, could lead to timelier outbreak detection.
METHODS: The historical limits comparison method was used to compare the number of positive rapid plasma reagin results reported during 2011-2014 with data for the preceding 3 years. An outbreak alert was generated when the monthly count of positive rapid plasma reagin quantitative results was greater than the historical mean plus 2 standard deviations for 2 consecutive months.
RESULTS: Three outbreak alerts occurred during 2011-2014. The first alert occurred in December 2012 in Maricopa County (Phoenix area). Primary and secondary cases subsequently increased from 10 in January 2013 to 15 in March followed by 5 months of consecutive increases. A second alert was generated for Maricopa County in May 2014. Primary and secondary cases increased from 29 in May to 42 in July 2014. Reported cases remained elevated for approximately 7 months after the second alert. In December 2013, an outbreak alert occurred for Pima County (Tucson area). The number of reported P&S syphilis cases in Pima County increased from 6 in February to 15 in March. Counts of reported cases remained elevated for approximately 6 months after the alert.
CONCLUSIONS: Use of historical limits comparison method based on syphilis laboratory results can provide an outbreak alert before increases in reported cases of P&S syphilis.
METHODS: The historical limits comparison method was used to compare the number of positive rapid plasma reagin results reported during 2011-2014 with data for the preceding 3 years. An outbreak alert was generated when the monthly count of positive rapid plasma reagin quantitative results was greater than the historical mean plus 2 standard deviations for 2 consecutive months.
RESULTS: Three outbreak alerts occurred during 2011-2014. The first alert occurred in December 2012 in Maricopa County (Phoenix area). Primary and secondary cases subsequently increased from 10 in January 2013 to 15 in March followed by 5 months of consecutive increases. A second alert was generated for Maricopa County in May 2014. Primary and secondary cases increased from 29 in May to 42 in July 2014. Reported cases remained elevated for approximately 7 months after the second alert. In December 2013, an outbreak alert occurred for Pima County (Tucson area). The number of reported P&S syphilis cases in Pima County increased from 6 in February to 15 in March. Counts of reported cases remained elevated for approximately 6 months after the alert.
CONCLUSIONS: Use of historical limits comparison method based on syphilis laboratory results can provide an outbreak alert before increases in reported cases of P&S syphilis.