Sustainability in Jordan's Municipal Solid Waste Management System: Reduction of Methane Emissions and Benefits to Public Health.

Municipal solid waste management (MSWM) in Jordan faces significant challenges. Jordan's primary waste management strategy relies heavily on final disposal, with up to 80% of all generated solid waste ultimately being landfilled. These unsustainable practices lead to environmental degradation and public health risks. Increased methane emissions have harmed air quality: methane can lead to the formation of ground-level ozone, which in turn causes respiratory problems including asthma and pneumonia. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of improved solid waste management strategies on methane emissions in the period from 2020 to 2050. The Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) is used for the analysis, and current methane emissions from municipal solid waste are estimated using data obtained from the Ministry of Local Administration, the Greater Amman Municipality, the Department of Statistics, and the World Health Organization. These datasets, which include information on waste quantities and landfill boundaries, are integrated into the LEAP software to facilitate estimation of methane emissions. Our analysis finds that, without intervention, methane emissions will rise from 4.3 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2020 to 7.8 million tons by 2050 due to increasing population and economic expansion. In addition to the serious environmental consequences, we estimate public health damages of $41 billion per year by 2050, linked to excess mortality. In the short-term, methane emissions can be mitigated by following a "circular economy" strategy of reuse and recycling. This could reduce methane emissions by 12% by 2030. Medium-term strategies, including the establishment of sanitary landfills and recycling facilities, combined with the short-term projects can reduce methane emissions 34% below baseline by 2040. Adding long-term strategies, including composting and additional reuse, leads to reductions of 55% by 2050. More dramatic individual changes to the system also have large effects: shifting to incineration instead of landfills reduces methane emissions by 52%. Advanced recycling facilities can reduce emissions by 35%. These results highlight the impact of improved integrated waste management approaches on reducing emissions and thus enhancing public health and global climate goals. The paper underscores the importance of technical advancement in solid waste management in Jordan. We show that large environmental and economic gains are possible with aggressive governmental actions and collaboration among stakeholders.