Estimating pesticide runoff in small streams.

Surface runoff is one of the most important pathways for pesticides to enter surface waters. Mathematical models are employed to characterize its spatio-temporal variability within landscapes, but they must be simple owing to the limited availability and low resolution of data at this scale. This study aimed to validate a simplified spatially-explicit model that is developed for the regional scale to calculate the runoff potential (RP). The RP is a generic indicator of the magnitude of pesticide inputs into streams via runoff. The underlying runoff model considers key environmental factors affecting runoff (precipitation, topography, land use, and soil characteristics), but predicts losses of a generic substance instead of any one pesticide. We predicted and evaluated RP for 20 small streams. RP input data were extracted from governmental databases. Pesticide measurements from a triennial study were used for validation. Measured pesticide concentrations were standardized by the applied mass per catchment and the water solubility of the relevant compounds. The maximum standardized concentration per site and year (runoff loss, R(Loss)) provided a generalized measure of observed pesticide inputs into the streams. Average RP explained 75% (p<0.001) of the variance in R(Loss). Our results imply that the generic indicator can give an adequate estimate of runoff inputs into small streams, wherever data of similar resolution are available. Therefore, we suggest RP for a first quick and cost-effective location of potential runoff hot spots at the landscape level.