Maternal serum screening for aneuploid pregnancy by alpha-fetoprotein, hCG, and unconjugated estriol.

A number of serum screening protocols are either currently in use or proposed to identify pregnant women under 35 years of age who are at increased risk for a Down syndrome fetus. It has been suggested that these same screening methods be applied to gravidas over 35 years of age to identify those women who should be offered amniocentesis. To evaluate the efficacy of screening for detection of aneuploid pregnancy in this age group, the serum samples of 34 women who underwent amniocentesis and who had confirmed fetal aneuploidy were assayed for alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), hCG, and unconjugated estriol (E3). These concentrations were compared with those of 85 women with known euploid pregnancy who underwent amniocentesis for advanced maternal age. The mean multiple of the median (MoM) for each of the three markers was significantly different from control values in cases of trisomy 21 (AFP median MoM = 0.82; unconjugated E3 median MoM = 0.77; and hCG median MoM = 1.89). These differences were not found when other aneuploidies were considered. Likelihood ratios were calculated for cases and controls and examined for their ability to predict the need for amniocentesis, based on currently recommended risk levels. There was a significant difference between the mean likelihood ratio for cases of trisomy 21 compared with that of controls (mean likelihood ratio = 13.48); there was no significant difference for other aneuploidies (mean likelihood ratio = 1.08). Of the 16 cases of trisomy 21 analyzed, four would not have been diagnosed antenatally if recommendation against amniocentesis had been made based on each woman's individual age-specific risk as modified by her likelihood ratio.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)