Violent crime rates as a proxy for the social determinants of sexually transmissible infection rates: the consistent state-level correlation between violent crime and reported sexually transmissible infections in the United States, 1981-2010.

BACKGROUND

Numerous social determinants of health are associated with violent crime rates and sexually transmissible infection (STI) rates. This report aims to illustrate the potential usefulness of violent crime rates as a proxy for the social determinants of STI rates.

METHODS

For each year from 1981 to 2010, we assessed the strength of the association between the violent crime rate and the gonorrhoea (Neisseria gonorrhoeae) rate (number of total reported cases per 100?000) at the state level. Specifically, for each year, we calculated Pearson correlation coefficients (and P-values) between two variables (the violent crime rate and the natural log of the gonorrhoea rate) for all 50 states and Washington, DC. For comparison, we also examined the correlation between gonorrhoea rates, and rates of poverty and unemployment. We repeated the analysis using overall syphilis rates instead of overall gonorrhoea rates.

RESULTS

The correlation between gonorrhoea and violent crime was significant at the P<0.001 level for every year from 1981 to 2010. Syphilis rates were also consistently correlated with violent crime rates. In contrast, the P-value for the correlation coefficient exceeded 0.05 in 9 of the 30 years for the association between gonorrhoea and poverty, and in 17 of the 30 years for that between gonorrhoea and unemployment.

CONCLUSIONS

Because violent crime is associated with many social determinants of STIs and because it is consistently associated with STI rates, violent crime rates can be a useful proxy for the social determinants of health in statistical analyses of STI rates.