[Causal relationship between circulating cytokines and keloids: A Mendelian randomized study].

OBJECTIVES: Keloids are fibrotic skin disorders characterized by excessive collagen deposition and a high recurrence rate, closely associated with inflammatory mediators. However, existing epidemiological studies are limited by confounding factors and reverse causality, making it difficult to establish causation. This study aims to investigate the causal relationship between circulating cytokines and keloids using Mendelian randomization analysis.

METHODS: Significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with circulating cytokines (exposures) and keloids (outcomes) were extracted from genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary datasets. Eligible SNPs were selected as instrumental variables (IVs). Exposure data were derived from a cytokine GWAS including 8 293 Finnish participants, and outcome data from a keloid GWAS based on the UK Biobank. The inverse-variance weighted (IVW) method served as the primary analytical approach to estimate causal effects, supplemented by weighted median (WME), MR-Egger regression, and other sensitivity analyses. Horizontal pleiotropy was assessed using MR-Egger regression and the MR pleiotropy residual sum and outlier (MR-PRESSO) test, while Cochran's Q test evaluated heterogeneity. Leave-one-out analysis was used to verify robustness and consistency. A reverse MR analysis was also conducted, with keloid as the exposure and cytokines as outcomes, to rule out reverse causation.

RESULTS: IVW analysis identified significant positive causal associations between two cytokines and keloids-macrophage migration inhibitory factor (MIF) [odds ratio (OR)=2.081, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.219 to 3.552, P=0.007] and monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1) (OR=1.673, 95% CI 1.036 to 2.701, P=0.035). Conversely, stem cell factor (SCF) showed a negative causal relationship with keloids (OR=0.518, 95% CI 0.269 to 0.998, P=0.049). Results from the MR-Egger and weighted median analyses were consistent with IVW findings. No evidence of horizontal pleiotropy was observed (P>0.05). Except for interleukin-6 (P=0.014), no heterogeneity was detected in other cytokines. Leave-one-out analysis further confirmed the robustness of the causal associations. In reverse MR analysis, keloids were causally related only to β-nerve growth factor (beta-NGF) (OR=1.048, 95% CI 1.002 to 1.095, P=0.039), with no heterogeneity or pleiotropy detected in most cytokines (P>0.05).

CONCLUSIONS: MIF and MCP-1 exhibit positive causal associations with keloid formation, while SCF shows a negative causal relationship. These findings provide new evidence for the causal involvement of inflammatory cytokines in keloid pathogenesis and offer potential molecular targets for developing novel keloid therapies.