QSAR Regression Models for Predicting HMG-CoA Reductase Inhibition.

BACKGROUND/

OBJECTIVES

HMG-CoA reductase is an enzyme that regulates the initial stage of cholesterol synthesis, and its inhibitors are widely used in the treatment of cardiovascular diseases.

METHODS

We have created a set of quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models for human HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors using nested cross-validation as the primary validation method. To develop the QSAR models, we employed various machine learning regression algorithms, feature selection methods, and fingerprints or descriptor datasets.

RESULTS

We built and evaluated a total of 300 models, selecting 21 that demonstrated good performance (coefficient of determination, R2 ≥ 0.70 or concordance correlation coefficient, CCC ≥ 0.85). Six of these top-performing models met both performance criteria and were used to construct five ensemble models. We identified the descriptors most important in explaining HMG-CoA inhibition for each of the six best-performing models. We used the top models to search through over 220,000 chemical compounds from a large database (ZINC 15) for potential new inhibitors. Only a small fraction (237 out of approximately 220,000 compounds) had reliable predictions with mean pIC50 values ≥ 8 (IC50 values ≤ 10 nM). Our svm-based ensemble model predicted IC50 values < 10 nM for roughly 0.08% of the screened compounds. We have also illustrated the potential applications of these QSAR models in understanding the cholesterol-lowering activities of herbal extracts, such as those reported for an extract prepared from the Iris × germanica rhizome.

CONCLUSIONS

Our QSAR models can accurately predict human HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors, having the potential to accelerate the discovery of novel cholesterol-lowering agents and may also be applied to understand the mechanisms underlying the reported cholesterol-lowering activities of herbal extracts.