Медицинская библиотека · Nature communications · 2026

Global hotspots of particulate organic carbon losses under climate change.

Sun Siyi, Cotrufo M Francesca, Viscarra Rossel R A, Mueller Carsten W, Kida Morimaru, Hardie Ailsa G, Mackay Alec, Krichels Alexander H, Amelung Wulf, Kumar Amit, Suleymanov Azamat, Shi Baoku, Cosby Bernard Jackson, Plaza César, Terrer César, Liang Chang, Liao Chang, Just Christopher, Guo Ding, Lugato Emanuele, Hou Enqing, Ding Fan, Zhao Fazhu, Tao Feng, Maestre Fernando T, Bilotto Franco, Wu Fuzhong, García Gisela V, Luo Gongwen, Han Guangxuan, Studdert Guillermo A, Hernandez-Ramirez Guillermo, Niu Guoxiang, Piñeiro Gervasio, Saiz Gustavo, Zhang Haikuo, Abdelrahman Hamada, Xu Haodi, Lebron Inma, Kurganova Irina, Blesh Jennifer, Kristensen Jeppe Å, Liu Ji, Zhou Jiacong, Wu Jianping, Ahirwal Jitendra, Cao Junji, Olesen Jørgen E, Kauer Karin, Georgiou Katerina, van Groenigen Kees Jan, Van Oost Kristof, Frimpong Kwame Agyei, Deng Lei, Benning Liane G, Guo Liang, Mujuru Lizzie, Delgado-Baquerizo Manuel, Dor Maoz, Rahmati Mehdi, Luo Min, Kalinina Olga, Hyvärinen Olli, García-Palacios Pablo, Hansen Paige, Rounak Patra, Duan Pengpeng, Zhao Pengzhi, Homyak Peter M, Ghimire Rajan, Žydelis Renaldas, Bol Roland, Vibart Ronaldo, Chang Ruiying, Luo Ruyi, Villarino Sebastián, Xue Shuai, Niu Shuli, Chen Shuotong, Yu Tengfei, Hall Steven J, Kätterer Thomas, Ge Tida, Mbanjwa Vusumuzi Erick, Semenov Vyacheslav M, Liu Weixing, Shi Weiyu, Zhang Wei, Wanek Wolfgang, Buss Wolfram, Cheng Xiangrong, Lu Xiankai, Shi Xiaojun, Cheng Xiaoli, Wei Xiaorong, Liu Xiaotong, Zhou Xuhui, Kooch Yahya, Zhong Yangquanwei, Cai Yanjiang, Yang Yan, Luo Yiqi, Zhang Yixuan, Qin Yunbin, Fang Yunting, Liang Yuting, Li Yuyi, Chen Zengming, Liu Zhanfeng, Song Zhaoliang, Luo Zhongkui, An Zhisheng, Chen Ji

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Аннотация

Soil organic carbon (SOC) comprises particulate (POC) and mineral-associated organic carbon (MAOC), which differ in formation, stabilization, and loss mechanisms. While the current global distribution of POC and MAOC is characterized, their vulnerability under future climate scenarios remains unclear. Using 3284 topsoil (0-30 cm) observations from six continents, we identify high-latitude soils as global hotspots of SOC vulnerability under shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). Under a high-emission scenario (SSP585), high-latitude soils are projected to lose substantial POC by 2100, accounting for about 81 ± 10% of total SOC losses. These declines are driven by the high proportion of SOC stored as POC (fPOC) and its high temperature sensitivity. We show that fPOC is a robust indicator of SOC vulnerability to climate change. Globally, the projected POC decline corresponds to a cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) release of 81.34 Pg CO2-equivalent by 2100, highlighting the importance of preserving POC to mitigate climate feedbacks.

Для цитирования: Sun Siyi, Cotrufo M Francesca, Viscarra Rossel R A, Mueller Carsten W, Kida Morimaru, Hardie Ailsa G, Mackay Alec, Krichels Alexander H, Amelung Wulf, Kumar Amit, Suleymanov Azamat, Shi Baoku, Cosby Bernard Jackson, Plaza César, Terrer César, Liang Chang, Liao Chang, Just Christopher, Guo Ding, Lugato Emanuele, Hou Enqing, Ding Fan, Zhao Fazhu, Tao Feng, Maestre Fernando T, Bilotto Franco, Wu Fuzhong, García Gisela V, Luo Gongwen, Han Guangxuan, Studdert Guillermo A, Hernandez-Ramirez Guillermo, Niu Guoxiang, Piñeiro Gervasio, Saiz Gustavo, Zhang Haikuo, Abdelrahman Hamada, Xu Haodi, Lebron Inma, Kurganova Irina, Blesh Jennifer, Kristensen Jeppe Å, Liu Ji, Zhou Jiacong, Wu Jianping, Ahirwal Jitendra, Cao Junji, Olesen Jørgen E, Kauer Karin, Georgiou Katerina, van Groenigen Kees Jan, Van Oost Kristof, Frimpong Kwame Agyei, Deng Lei, Benning Liane G, Guo Liang, Mujuru Lizzie, Delgado-Baquerizo Manuel, Dor Maoz, Rahmati Mehdi, Luo Min, Kalinina Olga, Hyvärinen Olli, García-Palacios Pablo, Hansen Paige, Rounak Patra, Duan Pengpeng, Zhao Pengzhi, Homyak Peter M, Ghimire Rajan, Žydelis Renaldas, Bol Roland, Vibart Ronaldo, Chang Ruiying, Luo Ruyi, Villarino Sebastián, Xue Shuai, Niu Shuli, Chen Shuotong, Yu Tengfei, Hall Steven J, Kätterer Thomas, Ge Tida, Mbanjwa Vusumuzi Erick, Semenov Vyacheslav M, Liu Weixing, Shi Weiyu, Zhang Wei, Wanek Wolfgang, Buss Wolfram, Cheng Xiangrong, Lu Xiankai, Shi Xiaojun, Cheng Xiaoli, Wei Xiaorong, Liu Xiaotong, Zhou Xuhui, Kooch Yahya, Zhong Yangquanwei, Cai Yanjiang, Yang Yan, Luo Yiqi, Zhang Yixuan, Qin Yunbin, Fang Yunting, Liang Yuting, Li Yuyi, Chen Zengming, Liu Zhanfeng, Song Zhaoliang, Luo Zhongkui, An Zhisheng, Chen Ji. Global hotspots of particulate organic carbon losses under climate change.. Nature communications. 2026. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-71321-2.

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