[The epidemic trend and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of congenital heart disease in Chinese perinatal infants].

Objective

To analyze the prevalence trend and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of congenital heart disease in China.

Methods

Data on the incidence of congenital heart disease in China and provinces from 2002 to 2021 were collected through publicly available literature and reports. Joinpoint regression was used to assess the temporal trend of the incidence of congenital heart disease. Spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatiotemporal scanning statistics were used to analyze the spatial aggregation of hotspots and clustering areas of congenital heart disease occurrence.

Results

The incidence of congenital heart disease in China showed a continuously increasing trend from 2002 to 2021, with an average annual increase of 15.33% (AAPC=15.33%, P<0.001). Except for areas with missing data, 25 provinces showed an increasing trend (all AAPC>0, all P<0.05), while there was no significant change in Guangdong and Guangxi (P=0.397 and 0.081). The results of global autocorrelation analysis showed that the occurrence of congenital heart disease had a certain clustering distribution, with the Global Moran's I>0 in 2005, 2006 and 2016, which were 0.23, 0.26 and 0.23 (P=0.027, 0.017 and 0.022). The results of local spatial autocorrelation showed that Hunan, Jiangxi and Fujian were high-high clustering areas, while the central and southwestern regions were low-low clustering areas. The results of segmental spatiotemporal scanning showed that eight clustering areas were found in four time periods (P≤0.001), and the clustering areas showed a trend of gradually expanding from none to certain coverage.

Conclusion

From 2002 to 2021, the overall trend of congenital heart disease in China has been on the rise, with a certain degree of spatial aggregation. The clustering areas of spatiotemporal scanning have gradually increased, and the scope has gradually expanded.