Analysis of the lockdown effects due to the COVID-19 on air pollution in Brescia (Lombardy).

SARS-CoV-2 virus (COVID-19) pandemic has impacted several countries, with also some differences at local levels. When lockdown restrictions were imposed, the concentrations of some air pollutants were reduced, as reported in some other cities in the world. This was often considered a positive by-product of the pandemic. However, often literature reporting the connection of air quality (AQ) and lockdown, suffers of limited and incomplete data analysis, not considering, for example, some confounding factors. This work presents a methodology, and the results of its application, to assess the impact of pandemic restrictions on AQ (in particular nitrogen oxides, NO2 and particulate matter, PM10) in spring 2020 in Brescia, located in one of the most affected areas in terms of virus diffusion and in one of the most polluted areas in Europe (Po Valley, Italy). In particular, the proposed methodology integrates data and AQ modelling simulations to distinguish between the changes in the PM10 and NO2 pollutants concentration that occurred due to the restriction measures and due to other factors, like spatial-temporal characteristics (for example the seasonality), meteorological factors, and governmental actions that were introduced in the past to improve the air quality. Results show that NO2 is strongly dependent to traffic emission. On the contrary, although the expected decrease in PM10 concentrations, the results highlight that the reduction of transport emission would not help to avoid severe air pollution, due to the other pollution sources that contribute to its origin. The results presented for the first time in this work are of particular interest because they may be used as a basis to investigate in more details the sources that can impact on the air quality in Brescia, with the aim to propose effective measures able to reduce it.