Risk ranking of macrolide antibiotics - Release levels, resistance formation potential and ecological risk.

Antibiotic resistance (AR) development in natural water bodies is a significant source of concern. Macrolide antibiotics in particular have been identified as pollutants of concern for AR development throughout the literature, as well as by state and international authorities. This study utilises a probabilistic model to examine the risk of AR development arising from human-use macrolide residues, utilising administration rates from Ireland as a case study. Stages modelled included level of administration, excretion, degradation in wastewater, removal in wastewater treatment, assuming conventional activated sludge (CAS) treatment, and dilution. Release estimates per day, as well as risk quotient values for antibiotic resistance development and ecological impact, are generated for erythromycin, clarithromycin, and azithromycin. In the modelled scenario in which conventional activated sludge treatment is utilised in wastewater treatment, this model ranks risk of resistance development for each antibiotic in the order clarithromycin > azithromycin > erythromycin, with mean risk quotient values of 0.50, 0.34 and 0.12, respectively. A membrane bioreactor scenario was also modelled, which reduced risk quotient values for all three macrolides by at least 50 %. Risk of ecological impact for each antibiotic was also examined, by comparing environmental concentrations predicted to safety limits based on toxicity data for cyanobacteria and other organisms from the literature, with azithromycin being identified as the macrolide of highest risk. This study compares and quantifies the risk of resistance development and ecological impact for a high-risk antibiotic group in the Irish context, and demonstrates the potential for risk reduction achieved by adoption of alternative (e.g. membrane bioreactor) technology.