Benefits and costs of measures to tackle the outbreak of African swine fever in Sweden.

A common rule in many countries for mitigating the damage caused by African swine fever (ASF) is to eradicate the virus at the outbreak in order to prevent its dispersal and the associated social costs of depopulating infected domestic pigs. The economic performance of this practice, as measured by five different evaluation criteria (net present value, benefit-cost ratio, rate of return, internal rate of return, and payback time), depends on the type of control cost and the spatial and dynamic allocation of benefits, i.e. avoided losses from infected domestic pig farms. The present paper calculates the direct and indirect costs of immediate control measures during an ASF outbreak in wild boars in Mid Sweden. The direct costs include expenses incurred for surveillance, laboratory tests, depopulation of wild boar etc., while the indirect costs are borne by firms and people in the area in relation to movement restrictions. The calculations showed that the total cost of control measures amounted to 28 million euros, with indirect costs making up 40 % of this figure. The benefits were greatly dependent on the speed of ASF dispersal and assumptions about pig farmers' investment responses, which implied large variations in each of the five evaluation criteria.