Physical water system consolidation alone cannot resolve drinking water failure in California's San Joaquin Valley.

Small community water systems in California's San Joaquin Valley disproportionately fail to provide safe drinking water, with most serving disadvantaged communities and lacking the technical, managerial, and financial capacity to maintain compliance. The State Water Board designates such systems as failing when they have documented violations of drinking water standards or cannot reliably deliver safe water. Physical consolidation, which involves connecting a smaller failing system to a larger provider through new pipeline infrastructure, is the primary long-term solution promoted by state regulators. Here, we assess consolidation feasibility and capital costs across four counties (Kern, Kings, Tulare, and Fresno) via the state's 2024 screening methodology. The methodology identifies smaller failing and at-risk systems as candidates for joining a larger receiving system with sufficient capacity. Among the 210 eligible systems, 114 (54%) matched a receiving system within three miles, with an estimated total capital need of $413.5 million. Nearly all identified pairs met state funding viability thresholds. The remaining 96 systems, including 49 classified as failing, lacked an eligible receiving partner and will require alternative solutions. Physical consolidation is necessary but insufficient for achieving safe drinking water access across the region.