Investigation and future trend prediction of disease burden of chronic kidney disease due to diabetes mellitus type 2 globally and in China from 1990 to 2021.

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the disease burden of chronic kidney disease due to diabetes mellitus type 2 (CKD due to diabetes mellitus type 2) in China and the global population from 1990 to 2021, and to predict the future trend of the population.

METHODS

Joinpoint regression quantifies trends by the average annual percentage change (AAPC). Decomposition analysis assessed the contribution of aging, population growth, and epidemiological transitions to changes in the disease burden. The Bayesian model predicts the number of cases and deaths in 2022-2031.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2021, the global and Chinese age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) showed an upward trend, of which the global AAPC was 1.928% (95% CI = 1.908-1.948%); global and Chinese age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) are on the rise. In the decomposition analysis, population growth was the main driving force for the increase of global and Chinese cases and deaths, accounting for 60.14, 53.99, 56.64, and 72.82% of the change, respectively. 87.17% of the global age-standardized DALY rate was attributed to hyperglycemia. High BMI has become a major risk factor in China. It is expected that by 2031, the number of ASIR and deaths of CKD worldwide will continue to rise.

CONCLUSIONS

The CKD due to diabetes mellitus type 2 burden remains severe worldwide and in China. Strengthened public health policies and clinical prevention strategies are urgently needed to mitigate this burden.