Predicted Risk of Ventricular Arrhythmias in a Genome-First Population With Genetic Risk for Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy.

BACKGROUND

Population genomic screening for desmosome variants associated with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) may facilitate early disease detection and protective intervention. The validated ARVC risk calculator offers a novel means to risk stratify individuals with diagnosed ARVC, but predicted risk in the context of genomic screening identification has not been explored.

METHODS

Individuals harboring a pathogenic/likely pathogenic variant in a desmosome gene (PKP2, DSP, DSG2, or DSC2) were identified through the Geisinger MyCode Genomic Screening and Counseling program. The ARVC risk calculator was applied to patients with a subsequent evaluation of right ventricular function. This predicted risk was compared with outcomes in the first 5 years (range, 0.3-5.0 years) after genetic result return.

RESULTS

Of 254 individuals with a clinically confirmed pathogenic/likely pathogenic desmosome variant, 113 (median age, 56 [interquartile range, 42-66]; 71% female) had cardiac imaging in follow-up and no prior sustained ventricular arrhythmia (VA). Eighty-two (73%) had no ARVC task force criteria (TFC) besides the variant (possible diagnosis), 22 (19%) had a single additional minor criterion (borderline diagnosis), and 9 (8%) met criteria for definite diagnosis. The median 5-year predicted VA risk was 3.9% (2.3%-6.6%), notably lower than that of the calculator derivation cohort (20.6%). The risk of fast VA was 1.6% (1.0%-2.9%). The predicted VA risk was higher in individuals with any nongenetic ARVC task force criteria (6.3% [2.5-13.2%]) versus those without (3.7% [2.2-5.6%]; P=0.01), and in individuals with DSP variants (6.1% [3.9-7.8%] versus PKP2 3.4% [2.2-5.3%]; P=0.01). Over a median 3.0 years of follow-up (≤5 years only), no sustained VA events were observed in this cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

The predicted 5-year risk of VA in individuals ascertained via population genomic screening for desmosome variants is low (3.9%; 1.6% for fast VA) but may vary by affected gene and ARVC task force criteria burden.