Predictors of abnormal cervical cytology: statistical analysis of human papillomavirus and cofactors.

Reported increases in the incidence of human papillomavirus infection have generated speculation that cervical cytological abnormalities may also be increasing. A 10-year retrospective study of cervical cytology in 2,919 college women demonstrated a significant increase in the frequency and severity of cervical-cytological abnormalities (p - 0.0001). The peak year for abnormal cervical cytology coincided with the peak year for overt human papillomavirus infection. Women with papillomarivus, genital herpes and who were also smokers had mean cervical-cytology scores significantly worse than those with none of these risk factors (p - 0.00001). A stepwise regression analysis of abnormal cytology from recorded risk factors accounted for only 10 percent of the variance, with human papillomavirus accounting for 8 percent of the total. If human papillomavirus is indeed responsibile for the majority of abnormalities, this infection is not detected reliably through routine examination and cervical-cytology screening [corrected].