Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
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Murray Christopher J L, Ortblad Katrina F, Guinovart Caterina, Lim Stephen S, Wolock Timothy M, Roberts D Allen, Dansereau Emily A, Graetz Nicholas, Barber Ryan M, Brown Jonathan C, Wang Haidong, Duber Herbert C, Naghavi Mohsen, Dicker Daniel, Dandona Lalit, Salomon Joshua A, Heuton Kyle R, Foreman Kyle, Phillips David E, Fleming Thomas D, Flaxman Abraham D, Phillips Bryan K, Johnson Elizabeth K, Coggeshall Megan S, Abd-Allah Foad, Abera Semaw Ferede, Abraham Jerry P, Abubakar Ibrahim, Abu-Raddad Laith J, Abu-Rmeileh Niveen Me, Achoki Tom, Adeyemo Austine Olufemi, Adou Arsène Kouablan, Adsuar José C, Agardh Emilie Elisabet, Akena Dickens, Al Kahbouri Mazin J, Alasfoor Deena, Albittar Mohammed I, Alcalá-Cerra Gabriel, Alegretti Miguel Angel, Alemu Zewdie Aderaw, Alfonso-Cristancho Rafael, Alhabib Samia, Ali Raghib, Alla Francois, Allen Peter J, Alsharif Ubai, Alvarez Elena, Alvis-Guzman Nelson, Amankwaa Adansi A, Amare Azmeraw T, Amini Hassan, Ammar Walid, Anderson Benjamin O, Antonio Carl Abelardo T, Anwari Palwasha, Arnlöv Johan, Arsenijevic Valentina S Arsic, Artaman Ali, Asghar Rana J, Assadi Reza, Atkins Lydia S, Badawi Alaa, Balakrishnan Kalpana, Banerjee Amitava, Basu Sanjay, Beardsley Justin, Bekele Tolesa, Bell Michelle L, Bernabe Eduardo, Beyene Tariku Jibat, Bhala Neeraj, Bhalla Ashish, Bhutta Zulfiqar A, Abdulhak Aref Bin, Binagwaho Agnes, Blore Jed D, Basara Berrak Bora, Bose Dipan, Brainin Michael, Breitborde Nicholas, Castañeda-Orjuela Carlos A, Catalá-López Ferrán, Chadha Vineet K, Chang Jung-Chen, Chiang Peggy Pei-Chia, Chuang Ting-Wu, Colomar Mercedes, Cooper Leslie Trumbull, Cooper Cyrus, Courville Karen J, Cowie Benjamin C, Criqui Michael H, Dandona Rakhi, Dayama Anand, De Leo Diego, Degenhardt Louisa, Del Pozo-Cruz Borja, Deribe Kebede, Des Jarlais Don C, Dessalegn Muluken, Dharmaratne Samath D, Dilmen Uğur, Ding Eric L, Driscoll Tim R, Durrani Adnan M, Ellenbogen Richard G, Ermakov Sergey Petrovich, Esteghamati Alireza, Faraon Emerito Jose A, Farzadfar Farshad, Fereshtehnejad Seyed-Mohammad, Fijabi Daniel Obadare, Forouzanfar Mohammad H, Fra Paleo Urbano, Gaffikin Lynne, Gamkrelidze Amiran, Gankpé Fortuné Gbètoho, Geleijnse Johanna M, Gessner Bradford D, Gibney Katherine B, Ginawi Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed, Glaser Elizabeth L, Gona Philimon, Goto Atsushi, Gouda Hebe N, Gugnani Harish Chander, Gupta Rajeev, Gupta Rahul, Hafezi-Nejad Nima, Hamadeh Randah Ribhi, Hammami Mouhanad, Hankey Graeme J, Harb Hilda L, Haro Josep Maria, Havmoeller Rasmus, Hay Simon I, Hedayati Mohammad T, Pi Ileana B Heredia, Hoek Hans W, Hornberger John C, Hosgood H Dean, Hotez Peter J, Hoy Damian G, Huang John J, Iburg Kim M, Idrisov Bulat T, Innos Kaire, Jacobsen Kathryn H, Jeemon Panniyammakal, Jensen Paul N, Jha Vivekanand, Jiang Guohong, Jonas Jost B, Juel Knud, Kan Haidong, Kankindi Ida, Karam Nadim E, Karch André, Karema Corine Kakizi, Kaul Anil, Kawakami Norito, Kazi Dhruv S, Kemp Andrew H, Kengne Andre Pascal, Keren Andre, Kereselidze Maia, Khader Yousef Saleh, Khalifa Shams Eldin Ali Hassan, Khan Ejaz Ahmed, Khang Young-Ho, Khonelidze Irma, Kinfu Yohannes, Kinge Jonas M, Knibbs Luke, Kokubo Yoshihiro, Kosen S, Defo Barthelemy Kuate, Kulkarni Veena S, Kulkarni Chanda, Kumar Kaushalendra, Kumar Ravi B, Kumar G Anil, Kwan Gene F, Lai Taavi, Balaji Arjun Lakshmana, Lam Hilton, Lan Qing, Lansingh Van C, Larson Heidi J, Larsson Anders, Lee Jong-Tae, Leigh James, Leinsalu Mall, Leung Ricky, Li Yichong, Li Yongmei, De Lima Graça Maria Ferreira, Lin Hsien-Ho, Lipshultz Steven E, Liu Shiwei, Liu Yang, Lloyd Belinda K, Lotufo Paulo A, Machado Vasco Manuel Pedro, Maclachlan Jennifer H, Magis-Rodriguez Carlos, Majdan Marek, Mapoma Christopher Chabila, Marcenes Wagner, Marzan Melvin Barrientos, Masci Joseph R, Mashal Mohammad Taufiq, Mason-Jones Amanda J, Mayosi Bongani M, Mazorodze Tasara T, Mckay Abigail Cecilia, Meaney Peter A, Mehndiratta Man Mohan, Mejia-Rodriguez Fabiola, Melaku Yohannes Adama, Memish Ziad A, Mendoza Walter, Miller Ted R, Mills Edward J, Mohammad Karzan Abdulmuhsin, Mokdad Ali H, Mola Glen Liddell, Monasta Lorenzo, Montico Marcella, Moore Ami R, Mori Rintaro, Moturi Wilkister Nyaora, Mukaigawara Mitsuru, Murthy Kinnari S, Naheed Aliya, Naidoo Kovin S, Naldi Luigi, Nangia Vinay, Narayan K M Venkat, Nash Denis, Nejjari Chakib, Nelson Robert G, Neupane Sudan Prasad, Newton Charles R, Ng Marie, Nisar Muhammad Imran, Nolte Sandra, Norheim Ole F, Nowaseb Vincent, Nyakarahuka Luke, Oh In-Hwan, Ohkubo Takayoshi, Olusanya Bolajoko O, Omer Saad B, Opio John Nelson, Orisakwe Orish Ebere, Pandian Jeyaraj D, Papachristou Christina, Caicedo Angel J Paternina, Patten Scott B, Paul Vinod K, Pavlin Boris Igor, Pearce Neil, Pereira David M, Pervaiz Aslam, Pesudovs Konrad, Petzold Max, Pourmalek Farshad, Qato Dima, Quezada Amado D, Quistberg D Alex, Rafay Anwar, Rahimi Kazem, Rahimi-Movaghar Vafa, Ur Rahman Sajjad, Raju Murugesan, Rana Saleem M, Razavi Homie, Reilly Robert Quentin, Remuzzi Giuseppe, Richardus Jan Hendrik, Ronfani Luca, Roy Nobhojit, Sabin Nsanzimana, Saeedi Mohammad Yahya, Sahraian Mohammad Ali, Samonte Genesis May J, Sawhney Monika, Schneider Ione J C, Schwebel David C, Seedat Soraya, Sepanlou Sadaf G, Servan-Mori Edson E, Sheikhbahaei Sara, Shibuya Kenji, Shin Hwashin Hyun, Shiue Ivy, Shivakoti Rupak, Sigfusdottir Inga Dora, Silberberg Donald H, Silva Andrea P, Simard Edgar P, Singh Jasvinder A, Skirbekk Vegard, Sliwa Karen, Soneji Samir, Soshnikov Sergey S, Sreeramareddy Chandrashekhar T, Stathopoulou Vasiliki Kalliopi, Stroumpoulis Konstantinos, Swaminathan Soumya, Sykes Bryan L, Tabb Karen M, Talongwa Roberto Tchio, Tenkorang Eric Yeboah, Terkawi Abdullah Sulieman, Thomson Alan J, Thorne-Lyman Andrew L, Towbin Jeffrey A, Traebert Jefferson, Tran Bach X, Dimbuene Zacharie Tsala, Tsilimbaris Miltiadis, Uchendu Uche S, Ukwaja Kingsley N, Uzun Selen Begüm, Vallely Andrew J, Vasankari Tommi J, Venketasubramanian N, Violante Francesco S, Vlassov Vasiliy Victorovich, Vollset Stein Emil, Waller Stephen, Wallin Mitchell T, Wang Linhong, Wang XiaoRong, Wang Yanping, Weichenthal Scott, Weiderpass Elisabete, Weintraub Robert G, Westerman Ronny, White Richard A, Wilkinson James D, Williams Thomas Neil, Woldeyohannes Solomon Meseret, Wong John Q, Xu Gelin, Yang Yang C, Yano Yuichiro, Yentur Gokalp Kadri, Yip Paul, Yonemoto Naohiro, Yoon Seok-Jun, Younis Mustafa, Yu Chuanhua, Jin Kim Yun, El Sayed Zaki Maysaa, Zhao Yong, Zheng Yingfeng, Zhou Maigeng, Zhu Jun, Zou Xiao Nong, Lopez Alan D, Vos Theo
Аннотация
METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets.
FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990.
INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action.
FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.