Biology letters · 2026
Structural causal influence captures the forces of social inequality in models of infectious disease.
СтатьяНазвание и аннотация: Перевод в очереди
Обработка статьи · этапы, ошибки и управление
Загрузка состояния…
Ошибки и ограничения
История · было → стало
Состояние обновляется каждые 5 секунд, пока блок открыт. Процент показывается только там, где известен объём работы. Пауза останавливает продолжение этапа; текущий запрос к источнику может завершиться.
Surasinghe Sudam, Manivannan Swathi Nachiar, Scarpino Samuel V, Crawford Lorin, Ogbunugafor C Brandon
Аннотация
Mathematical models are central to understanding disease transmission for host-pathogen systems across the biosphere. However, most existing frameworks do not explicitly treat host population heterogeneity as a formal driver of variation in transmission dynamics. This gap is most visible in human disease, where social inequalities are well known to structure infectious disease risk, but applies broadly: ecological, behavioural and demographic structure shapes transmission in non-human host populations as well. Here, we introduce a new metric, structural causal influence, which uses causal analysis to quantify how subpopulations contribute to overall transmission through structural differences in exposure, susceptibility or recovery. Using a multi-population model, we show that even a population whose isolated reproduction number lies below one can be drawn into a sustained epidemic through minimal contact with a more affected group.